Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war weighing on EM manufacturers’ sentiment The manufacturing PMIs remained subdued across EMs last month despite the US-China trade truce. That said, the timely hard activity data released so far has shown more resilience than the survey data. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle would resume... 3rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Polish Presidential Election (2nd Round) The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party, in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through its reform agenda... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third... 28th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
