Europe Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey points to a softening market in Europe The Q1 RICS survey painted a downbeat picture of sentiment in European commercial property markets, with France and Germany generally weighing on the overall picture and Spain, Portugal and Poland... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2026) & CPI (Apr. 2026) The 0.2% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 underlines that the economy had entered the Iran war with very weak momentum and we’re expecting GDP to do little more than stagnate this year, despite... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fuel price shock driving EM inflation higher Inflation data for April released across EMs suggest that the energy price shock has pushed fuel inflation up materially and that surveys of firms’ inflation expectations are rising sharply. So far... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q1 2026) Polish GDP growth in Q1, of 0.5% q/q, was a bit softer than expected, but it still looks like the economy weathered the first few months of the energy shock reasonably well. 14th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish rhetoric in Central Europe but no rush to tighten Communications from central banks in Czechia and Poland this week suggest that both are set to keep rates unchanged for a long time. That said, policymakers in Poland would probably be the first to... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Czech National Bank’s decision to leave the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% will be accompanied by upwards revisions to its inflation forecasts in the post-meeting communications. But as... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Polish MPC’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold is likely to be marked by a pause for at least the rest of this year. Despite the rise in inflation and resilience of economic activity, the... 6th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that economic and financial vulnerabilities in most EMs were low coming into the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q1 2026) The much better-than-expected Hungarian Q1 GDP figure, and the rise in sentiment indicators this month, will give the incoming Tisza government more optimism that it may be able to achieve its... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
