Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks

The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials

Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle...

3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. Our...

2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3

The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that...

1st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain

Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may...

27th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.)

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations...

27th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

A soft patch

The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn...

26th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 44 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In...

26th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus...

26th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last meeting. We...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM growth enters a slower phase

Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn...

25th September 2024 · 26 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read