Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turmoil in a few EMs not a sign of widespread risks The financial market sell-offs in Indonesia, Turkey and Colombia this week are, in part, a reflection of concerns about strained balance sheets. We think that vulnerabilities in some frontier markets... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sell-off in Turkey’s markets News that Turkey’s main opposition leader has been arrested today raises concerns over a potential return to unorthodox economic policy in Turkey. While the risks to our relatively upbeat view on... 19th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkish lira plunges The sharp drop in the Turkish lira on the news that the main opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been arrested will complicate the central bank’s task of bringing inflation down and raises big... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine ceasefire talks, Romania’s political risks The US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine has been met with a mixed response in Russia, with President Putin saying that he “supports the idea” but that it needs “serious reworking”. Achieving... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile... 13th March 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to cut its policy rate by 250bp again today, to 42.50%, suggest that policymakers were reassured by the fall in... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
