Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bank of Israel cuts rates, Turkey’s rebalancing in focus Israel's central bank started its monetary easing cycle this week with a 25bp interest rate cut - a move that came a bit sooner than we'd expected. But inflation risks are greater than most anticipate... 5th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Turkish inflation to 64.8% y/y in December was broadly in line with expectations and the breakdown provided some signs that underlying price pressures continue to soften. We think the... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is Turkey’s policy shift the real deal? 1704812400 The Erdogan government’s turn back to macroeconomic orthodoxy is showing early positive signs: inflation pressures have eased; the current account deficit has narrowed; and foreign investment has p
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) maintained a hawkish tone as it started its easing cycle today, but we still think that interest rates will be lowered by a further 300bp next year (from 6.75% to 3.75%)... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a 250bp interest rate hike, to 42.50%, at today’s meeting and didn’t close the door on the tightening cycle. We’ve now pencilled in one more 250bp hike at the... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Nov.) Poland’s activity data for November suggest that the economic recovery stalled last month, but we think that this is only a temporary blip. We still expect GDP growth to strengthen from around 0.5% in... 21st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail revival to stall after 2024 In Warsaw, more favourable economic conditions will support retail spending and prime rents in the short term. But from 2025, faster rises in online shopping than elsewhere in Europe will cause the... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks easing, but still areas for concern The more supportive global risk environment is helping to ease some financial strains across the EM world, but there are still pockets of vulnerability heading into 2024. Balance of payments positions... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by 75bp again today (to 10.75%), and we think it will probably continue to lower rates at this pace over its next few meetings. However, we expect... 19th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have... 15th December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected fall in Israeli inflation to 3.3% y/y in November suggests that the inflationary impact of the war and the sharp rise in government spending have been limited so far. This... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at the rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves Turkey’s gross international reserves have hit a record high recently which, on the face of it, suggests that the policy U-turn since May has helped to diminish the country’s balance of payments... 14th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read