Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal hole will hold back the recovery The Orbán administration’s pre-election spending splurge is likely to push the Hungarian government’s budget deficit towards 6.5% of GDP (on an ESA basis) by the end of this year. Our judgement is... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime office outperformance to wane The limited hit to economic activity from the Iran war and our expectation that risk-free rates will fall back mean we forecast only a temporary slowdown in European commercial property value growth... 1st July 2026 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (June 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past couple of weeks in light of the US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Outflows could pick up again if the fragile truce falls... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish MNB keeps the door wide open for further cuts The communications that followed the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the base rate earlier today support our view that there’s a clear path for further easing in the coming months. We... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more Czech rate hikes in the pipeline The communications following the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to hike the policy rate today didn’t commit the MPC to further tightening. But with growth likely to exceed consensus... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% marks the start of what is likely to be a modest tightening cycle, with perhaps just one or two more 25bp moves... 18th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its key policy rates unchanged today (rather than hike) confirms that it would take much more severe strains in the balance of payments than... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus European student housing outperformance has further to run The two-decade period of student accommodation outperformance in Europe is set to continue, supported by higher income returns, favourable structural demand drivers and still-tight supply. Within... 9th June 2026 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
