Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Bank of Israel to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, was accompanied by communications which suggest that further monetary easing will be approached cautiously and will... 24th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) Softening rental growth and steady yields weighed on capital value growth in many markets in Q3. And this is likely to continue, with our Capital Value Lead Indicator pointing to a further slowdown in... 24th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine peace plan, Hungary rates, Israel’s recovery Details of the latest US-Russian led peace plan to end the war in Ukraine suggest that Washington is willing to make significant concessions to Moscow in negotiations, but the proposal is likely to... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly War and peace in energy markets While crude oil and natural gas prices have fallen as the US attempts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we think that the impact of a formal end to the war on prices would be... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) Commercial property valuations held steady in Q3, supported by lower equity dividend yields despite higher government bond yields. Looking ahead, there is limited scope for falls in government bond... 19th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation? The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last... 17th November 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher defence spending in EMs: the macro impact Defence spending across much of Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East is set to rise in the coming years, driven by heightened regional tensions and US pressure on allies to take... 11th November 2025 · 13 mins read
