Latin America Economics Update Peru: BCRP pause, underlines gradual pace of rate hikes The Central Bank of Peru’s (BCRP’s) surprise decision to hold interest rates at 3.0% last night adds weight to our view that rate hikes will be gradual. We continue to expect rates to end next year at... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s UK producer prices figures suggest that pipeline cost pressures in the industrial sector are still quite strong. But we do not expect that to prevent overall consumer price inflation from... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) Current economic conditions worsened sharply last month, according to the latest Economy Watchers Survey (EWS). An apparent improvement in the outlook provided the thinnest of silver linings... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Equity market implications of further quantitative easing 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fears over capital inflows don't apply to Emerging Europe Fears that a rapid influx of capital into emerging markets may sow the seeds of the next bubble are starting to build. For the bulk of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), however, the biggest risk is that... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bubble trouble? The prospect of additional quantitative easing (QE) by a number of major central banks in the developed world has coincided with a renewed surge in the prices of risky assets. We are sceptical that... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation pushed up by food prices Although Brazilian inflation accelerated in September, the pick-up was driven by food prices. With the economy now growing at a sustainable rate, we expect the headline rate of inflation to remain at... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not yet ready to increase its support The ECB maintained a fairly dovish tone today, pledging continued support for commercial banks and possibly more peripheral government bond purchases. But there was little to suggest that the Bank... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can exporters survive a stronger renminbi? Export margins did not fall when the renminbi was last rising against the dollar and Chinese producers continued to gain global market share. There is no reason to think that China’s export sector is... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines is in no rush to lift policy rates As expected, the Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept its key policy rate on hold at 4.0% today. The upswing will probably stay strong while inflation risks will climb next year. But currency... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Aug.) The latest German industrial and French trade data suggest that, despite ongoing fears about the region’s periphery, the immediate risk of a “double dip” recession in the euro-zone as a whole is small... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Edging closer to more stimulus One explanation for the relatively small drop in employment during this recession is the muted pickup in company insolvencies. But a number of factors could prompt insolvencies to rise further... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s UK industrial production figures confirmed that, for now at least, the manufacturing sector continues to defy the gathering gloom over the broader economic outlook. But industry’s resilience... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The hefty drop in the Halifax measure of house prices adds weight to the view that house price weakness is far from over. To our minds, weak housing market activity indicators mean that further falls... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression will not extend into 2011 (Q4 10) Commercial property occupier markets in most of non-euro-zone Europe appear to have bottomed out a little earlier than we had previously anticipated. Our forecasts now reflect this. Nevertheless... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
