Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Oct. 25) While the composite PMI softened in October, it still points to a healthy expansion in economic activity. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) Although underlying inflation softened somewhat in September, our sense is that there is still a strong case for the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle. However, with policymakers still keen... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2025) The dip in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of October, combined with the weakness in the economy, means that Banxico is likely to follow through on its forward guidance and deliver... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Still in a good place The ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% next week and we expect Christine Lagarde to repeat that monetary policy is in a “good place”. She might also suggest that the next move in... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Why the Bank of Canada will cut rates again…and again and again 29th October 2025, 4:00PM GMT Our North America team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada decision to unpack the Bank’s latest communications and baseline forecasts.
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2025) After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Dearth of official data won’t stop Fed from cutting The weakness in various labour market indicators suggest the FOMC will vote for another 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%. The threat of broader... 22nd October 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep' 25) South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.4% y/y for September should do more than enough to sway the Reserve Bank to restart its monetary easing cycle next month, with the... 22nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) We doubt that the lower peak in CPI inflation than most feared will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.00% at its next policy meeting on 6th November. At 3.8% in September, CPI... 22nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The modest upside surprise to CPI inflation in September was largely due to higher food prices and a rebound in travel-related prices, rather than broad-based gains. Nonetheless, with September’s... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: What next for the RBA? How Q3 CPI could influence the rate outlook 29th October 2025, 1:30AM GMT Mixed signals from recent data have complicated the RBA’s job.
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show trade uncertainty still the main drag The main theme running through the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly business and consumer surveys is uncertainty, with CUSMA renegotiations on the horizon. This supports our view that exports and... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Latest decisions and policy outlook 30th October 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our senior economists hosted this 20-minute session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting.
Event UK Drop-In: Peak inflation? September CPI and the outlook for policy 22nd October 2025, 9:30AM BST Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate
