Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2026) The small fall in Mexican inflation, to 4.5% y/y, in the first half of April was driven by easing underlying price pressures and will be welcomed by the central bank. That’s increased the likelihood... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) South Africa’s Reserve Bank will welcome last month’s soft inflation outturn of 3.1% y/y but adjustments to administered fuel prices will cause inflation to jump in April. Even so, the headline rate... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2026) The energy shock will knock around 0.5%-pts off India’s GDP growth this year and push headline inflation to a peak of close to 6%. But we think the RBI will refrain from raising interest rates unless... 21st April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026) While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy. 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar 2026) The broadly target-consistent gain in an average of the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures in March will persuade policymakers to look through the jump in the all-items... 20th April 2026 · 3 mins read
