US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but the pause won’t last long The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate at 7.00%, but the decision was split with some MPC members voting for another cut. And with growth still sluggish, inflation weak, and... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2025) After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (September 2025) The dovish signal sent by Norges Bank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.0% was accompanied by its more hawkish view on the interest rate outlook. We expect the Bank to leave interest... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug. 25) South Africa’s weaker-than-expected headline inflation reading of 3.3% y/y for August reinforces our belief that the Reserve Bank’s monetary easing cycle has longer to run. We expect an interest rate... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The recent upward march in CPI inflation paused for breath in August, with CPI inflation staying at 3.8%. Even so, as inflation will probably rise above 4.0% in September, the Bank of England won’t do... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Core goods prices fell in August for the first time this year, which supports our view that the upside risks to inflation have eased considerably in recent months. That suggests the Bank of Canada... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation rebased, headline rate hits two-year high The rebasing of Saudi Arabia’s inflation data, which came alongside August’s data release, has resulted in only minor changes to the headline inflation readings, but it underlines the shifts in... 15th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations adding to the BoE’s nerves The recent rises in households’ inflation expectations will be making the Bank of England more nervous about the outlook for inflation. This feeds into our new forecast that the Bank will keep... 12th September 2025 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) India’s headline CPI inflation rose for the first time in ten months in August, but at just 2.1% it remains very low and we think it will only gradually rise back up to the RBI’s 4% target. This gives... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
