Africa Economics Update Inflation in South Africa: more downside surprises to come Inflation in South Africa is now running at extremely low rates by historic standards. While we think it will edge up from here, the extent of spare capacity in the economy and tight fiscal stance... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Nov) Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The fall in headline consumer price inflation to back within the RBI's target range in November, along with the change of leadership at the central bank into a seemingly less hawkish direction, mean... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Nov) The 0.31% m/m increase in core CPI in November, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3% for a fourth month in a row and pushed the three-month annualised rate up to an eight-month... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Update How far will mortgage interest cost inflation fall? While mortgage interest cost (MIC) inflation has historically turned negative during, or after, loosening cycles, we expect it to remain positive this time and rebound from 2026. This is because, in... 10th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed from 26.5% y/y in October to 25.5% y/y in November and, with falls in the pound starting to fall out of the annual price comparison and global food and energy... 10th December 2024 · 2 mins read
