Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year. 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry in the doldrums even with China boost The latest PMIs show that while China’s manufacturing sector is benefiting from a fiscal boost, industry in most of the rest of the world continues to struggle. With demand weak and little disruption... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Nov. 24) The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But this tailwind is unlikely to be sustained beyond a couple of quarters. And US tariffs will soon hurt China’s... 29th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November 2024) The continued strength of euro-zone services inflation in November reduces the chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50bp in December. But one-off base effects stopped services inflation from... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (November 2024) The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
