India Economics Update India’s core inflation unlikely to rise much further Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Subdued global inflation masks regional variation We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with... 18th November 2025 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s easing cycle likely to be deeper than most expect Brazil’s monetary policy stance is extremely tight – the policy rate is at its highest level since the mid-2000s. With GDP growth likely to disappoint and inflation softening, there should be ample... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The modest upside surprise to headline inflation in October was largely due to one-off factors, whereas the smaller average monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median lends some support to our view that... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s behind the weakness in Polish inflation? The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last... 17th November 2025 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly New inflation forecasts, Bihar election implications Headline inflation in India fell to a near 26-year low in October. Although this probably marks the bottom, we now think it will average just 3.0% in 2026, from 3.4% previously. That will allow the... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.2% y/y in October, remaining weak by other EM and Gulf standards, and we expect it to stay subdued as we head into 2026. 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) India’s headline consumer price inflation fell to a near 26-year low in October and with inflation set to remain well below the 4% target over the coming quarters, we continue to expect the RBI to... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey adds to signs jobs market has stabilised The latest NFIB survey provides further evidence that the labour market has not deteriorated any further since official jobs data stopped being reported. 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2025) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening... 11th November 2025 · 2 mins read
