Japan Economics Update Slower food inflation won’t stop BoJ from hiking rates Soaring food inflation has been the key driver behind the recent strength in headline inflation. Processed food inflation will remain high for a while yet but that won’t prevent overall food inflation... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside inflation risks build across CEE The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp fall in Indian headline consumer price inflation in January reinforces our view that the RBI will continue to loosen monetary policy over the coming months to support the economy. 12th February 2025 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much... 12th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in... 11th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate only slowed a touch to 24.0% y/y in January. But with earlier falls in the pound now starting to fall out of the annual price comparison, we expect Egypt’s headline... 10th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation rose to a five-month high last month, driven by the lagged effect of stronger demand last quarter on the back of government efforts to boost consumption. But with the boost from... 10th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
