Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital... 7th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in July paves the way for Banxico to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.75%, at its meeting later today. 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (July) The increase in Sweden’s CPIF inflation rate to its highest level since the start of 2024 is likely to encourage the Riksbank’s officials to keep the policy rate on hold at their meeting later this... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun. 2025) Although regular earnings growth has been struggling to gain momentum, we think it will do so before long. Accordingly, the data shouldn’t stand in the way of the Bank of Japan resume its tightening... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: Despite its cautious tone, RBA will cut rates to 2.85% With underlying inflation within striking distance of the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about cutting rates by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Although the Bank... 5th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (July) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in July, to 33.5% y/y, will encourage the central bank to continue its easing cycle next month. 4th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2025) Headline inflation remained at the target in July and core inflation was only a touch higher. Both were broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. So there was little in the data to suggest that the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
