Europe Economics Weekly No sign of China import flood; Italy deficit back at 3% The latest data show that there is little sign of a flood of cheap Chinese goods hitting the euro-zone as a result of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the new deficit projections released by the Italian... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: China Outlook – Can policy reverse economic weakness? 9th October 2025, 9:00AM BST Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures.
Global Economics Update PMIs imply softer price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has remained relatively resilient in the wake of US tariffs and that the outlook has improved slightly. Meanwhile, goods price pressures have softened... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (September) The small rise in euro-zone HICP inflation in September will not shift the consensus at the ECB that rates are in a “good place” for now. However, we think inflation will fall to only 1.5% by December... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The weak batch of manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in September suggest that industrial activity in the region is continuing to be held back by weak external demand. The surveys also suggests... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI opens door to further policy easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.50% today but has left the door open for a resumption in the easing cycle over the coming months. We still expect the repo rate... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed’s next chapter 7th October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest US Economic Outlook makes the case for stronger growth than the consensus expects as an AI-driven investment boom boosts productivity and helps offsets the drag from tighte
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
