Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey set for a slow disinflation process

Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in...

5th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will start cutting rates early next year

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the...

5th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry

While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Strong GDP & inflation not enough to prevent 50bp cut

The stronger-than-expected euro-zone GDP and inflation data released this week, as well as some comments by ECB policymakers, poured some cold water on expectations that the ECB might accelerate the...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct .24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is...

1st November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (October)

Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease

Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Focus

What does a declining population mean for Canada?

The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on...

31st October 2024 · 15 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Sep 2024) & ECI (Q3 2024)

The news on prices was mixed, with the September data showing that the core PCE deflator increased at a slightly faster 0.25% m/m (or 3.0% in 1m annualised terms) and, in part due to some modest...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read