Chief Economist's Note The Middle East conflict: What it means for economies and markets The war in the Middle East raises a broad set of macro and market questions. All of our analysis is collected on this page, and our summary views on some of the most pressing issues are outlined below... 6th March 2026
Asia Economics Weekly A stagflationary shock for Asia Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict would act as a terms-of-trade shock for Asia’s largely energy-importing economies, squeezing households and firms and slowing growth. Inflation would... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil reprieve, but other risks from Iran conflict mount One of India's key exposures to the Middle East conflict is higher oil prices, so news that the US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil purchases will have brought some relief in New Delhi... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: what higher energy prices mean for inflation Inflation in Korea was muted again last month, but it would rise sharply in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that led to a sustained increase in global energy prices. Against such... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not the only problem for the Fed The jump in oil prices comes at a time when other indicators of near-term inflationary pressures are also beginning to look a bit more concerning. Accordingly, even if oil prices fall back sooner... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Productivity (Q4 2025) The productivity data released today confirm that, thanks to the large negative benchmark payroll revisions for 2025, productivity growth was stronger than originally estimated over the first three... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2026) February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
