Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2025) There were fewer signs of tariff effects in June’s PPI data, meaning our estimate for core PCE prices now points to a trivially smaller 0.27% m/m rise last month. While prices are rising at slower... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in the core CPI in June indicates that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator rose by 0.3% last month, with the annual core PCE inflation rate unchanged at 2.7%. While that would be... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The above-target monthly gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in June leave the three-month annualised pace of those averaged measures holding uncomfortably high at 3.5%, meaning the door is now firmly... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Jun. ‘25) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from 2.2% y/y in May to 2.3% y/y in June and, while it is likely to rise a little further the coming months, we think there will be a return to... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why is inflation in Saudi Arabia so low? Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the... 14th July 2025 · 11 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next month. But given the RBI... 14th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE March meetings and the policy outlook 19th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Are inflation and labour market dynamics putting expectations for more Fed easing at risk? Does cooling inflation clear the way for the Bank of England to cut again?
Event Drop-In: The Bank of Canada’s January decision and the 2026 policy outlook 28th January 2026, 5:00PM GMT Our Canada team were onlineshortly after the Bank of Canada’s January meeting, for a 20-minute online briefing about the country’s economic and policy outlook.
Event LatAm Drop-In: Iran conflict and the implications for Latin America 11th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT How will the surge in energy prices affect Latin American economies – and how might the region’s central banks respond?
Event Japan Drop-In: Is a BOJ rate hike coming sooner? Insights after the March meeting 19th March 2026, 8:00AM GMT The Bank of Japan faces a very different challenge from most of its global peers.
Event Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook 10th December 2025, 3:00PM GMT Will the US economy continue to outperform on the back of the AI boom? How will trade tensions shape global macro outcomes?
