India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2025) India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting... 21st August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 25) While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest. 21st August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone? The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures... 19th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leave the three-month annualised average rate of CPI-trim and CPI-median at a more modest 2.4%... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2025) The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA inflation trending down and rates will follow Many central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa have cut interest rates over the past year or so and Nigeria will soon join the rate-cutting club. With inflation low or falling in most countries, we... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank still wrestling with inflation concerns The Bank of Canada could still cut rates in September, depending on the outcome of next week's July price data and the quarterly GDP data released later this month. But the cautious tone on inflation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
