Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to stay strong, despite wage slowdown The recent slowdown in wage growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a welcome development for central banks, but we don’t think it will ease much further, limiting how quickly services... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be... 14th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (July 2025) Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in June to 2.1% y/y in July, its weakest pace since February. As we flagged in a recent Focus, we think that inflation will continue to... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Could tariffs yet reignite global inflation? Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far, but we still expect the impact to gradually build. In the US, combined with the crackdown on immigration, tariffs should keep core inflation... 13th August 2025 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2025) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends support to our... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s headline inflation rate in July, to an eight-year low, raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further this year. But with inflation set to... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s deflation problem isn’t going away Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 7.75%, as expected at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that cuts are likely to continue in... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
