Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Dec. 2024)

December’s batch of PMIs declined for the most part across the Gulf but we doubt that the strength of non-oil activity will be sustained in 2025, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Elsewhere...

6th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

What to expect from next week’s data

Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth...

3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Turkey last month, to 44.4%, points towards another 250bp interest rate cut, to 45.0%, at the next central bank meeting on 23rd January.

3rd January 2025 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

PMIs consistent with industrial weakness in December

The manufacturing PMIs overstated the weakness of industrial activity in 2024 but, at face value, their decline throughout most of the world in December suggests that the sector has entered 2025 on a...

2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer

The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than...

2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target...

23rd December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than...

23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025

Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and...

20th December 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Weekly

What we got right and wrong and three ‘cases’ for 2025

We think stronger GDP growth, falling inflation and gradual interest rate cuts will be the key themes that shape 2025. But recent economic data have raised the chances that high inflation combines...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Nov)

The 0.11% m/m increase in core PCE prices in November was the smallest gain in six months, although it follows on the heels of two above-target ~0.25% gains in the preceding two months. That November...

20th December 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria: inflation, rates, and budget optimism

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Otherwise, President Tinubu unveiled the 2025...

20th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

No economic bazooka in German election manifestos

The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general...

20th December 2024 · 10 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: BoJ still signalling room – and desire – to hike further

Governor Ueda delivered two messages in the press conference after yesterday’s policy meeting: first, the Bank of Japan thinks that policy normalisation is still on track and it intends to raise rates...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan

The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan...

20th December 2024 · 7 mins read