UK Drop-In: Peak inflation? September CPI and the outlook for policy

We expect Wednesday’s release to show that UK CPI rose above 4% in September – more than double the Bank of England’s target and a clear signal to markets and the government that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Even so, we think this could mark the peak, with lower-than-expected inflation in 2026 paving the way for rate cuts next year. But will September CPI really signal a turning point in the UK’s battle with price pressures?

Join our UK team at 09:30 BST on Wednesday 22nd October, shortly after the release as they unpack the data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate view. In this concise 20-minute session, the team will take your questions as they address:

• The forces likely to drive disinflation from October onwards;
• How the Chancellor’s November Budget could influence the inflation path;
• How our UK inflation forecast underpins our view that Bank Rate will fall more than most expect in 2026.