Capital Daily US downgrade comes at tough time for Treasuries The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem... 19th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trade truce keeps the greenback on the front foot, mostly The de-escalation in the US-China trade war gave the dollar a renewed boost against most G10 currencies this week. But, a fall back in Treasury yields has taken away some of those gains as we head... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Back to square one? Taking stock of the trade war roundtrip One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2nd... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone... 15th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US yield curve could flatten further, despite Fed cuts We think the recent “bear flattening” of the US Treasury yield curve has a bit further to run. 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US dollar & equities may not always dance to the same tune On balance we suspect the US dollar will be positively correlated with the performance of the US stock market (i.e. it will have a “positive beta”) over the next year or so. But we don’t think that... 15th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu: is this the start of a big depreciation? The strong lead for far-right candidate George Simion in Romania’s presidential election, and the collapse of the coalition government last week, led to the largest one-week fall in the leu since 2009... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US big tech is back … but not at China’s expense The rolling back of tariffs has coincided with a recovery in big tech in the US and China. Their dual rally is something new since Donald Trump returned to the White House. We think there’s a good... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property prices won't recover this decade While sales volumes have picked up since the start of last year, we expect residential property prices in Hong Kong to continue to fall until Fed cuts resume. Even then, given the structural headwinds... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Good news on inflation not doing much for Treasuries Despite the US-China truce, we still think inflationary pressures will prompt the Fed to stay pat for a while yet. But we doubt the 10-year Treasury yield will rise much more from here, even though... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Back to the future? Just over a month ago, we ditched our long-held forecast that the S&P 500 would end this year at 7,000, and revised it all the way down to 5,500. While that looks like it might have been a mistake, we... 12th May 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Wait-and-see FOMC gives the dollar some respite The dollar has edged higher against most major currencies over the week as a whole, supported by the FOMC’s pushback against expectations of policy easing in the near term. The turmoil in some Asian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
