Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC’s return to bond trading signals renewed easing The PBOC’s bond trading operations were initially envisaged as a tool to limit declines in yields. But, alongside policy rate cuts, they are likely to be used to guide yields lower over the coming... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings results could trump the Fed The market reaction to news around US-Asia trade is yet another reminder of how crucial the AI narrative is for the stock market and, accordingly, how significant big tech earnings results today and... 29th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025) EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported... 29th October 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hiatus until Q3 2026 The RBA will leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% on 4th November. And with inflation proving stubborn, the Bank is likely to remain on hold until the second half of next year. That said, a prolonged... 29th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Takaichi, Bessent and the yen tug of war The Japanese yen has rebounded a bit today on the back of US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s latest foray into verbal currency intervention (this time in favour of the yen), but it remains near its... 28th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Au’ revoir, gold We doubt the recent pull-back in the price of gold will be unwound. Indeed, our new forecast is that the price will fall to $3,500/oz. by the end of 2026. 27th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Argentina’s mid-terms The larger-than-expected victory for Argentina’s President Milei in Sunday’s mid-term elections has sparked a rally in Argentinian financial markets. Our initial response to the election can be found... 27th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still on the front foot despite soft US CPI The dollar has edged higher over the week as a whole despite the soft US CPI data released earlier today. Even so, the DXY index remains a touch below its recent peak two weeks ago, before the re... 24th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring inflation and rate cut expectations While delayed US inflation data for September have seemingly made a Fed rate cut next week all but certain, we still think the growth and inflation backdrop are consistent with the Fed cutting rates... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Canaries in the coalmine or a storm in a teacup? We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing spillovers from US oil sanctions Although news of fresh US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector has sparked a jump in oil prices, the feedthrough to bond and equity markets has been limited and we expect that this will remain the case... 23rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
Equities Update What’s next for US small caps? US small caps have outperformed the average US large-cap one over the past six months or so, but we doubt that will continue. 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
