Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM dollar bond rally may fizzle out While emerging market (EM) dollar bonds have gained some ground lately, they have underperformed US high-yield corporate bonds in total return terms, and we suspect they will continue to lag next year... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Is this a new dawn for China’s stock market? The Hang Seng index enjoyed another stimulus-related boost today but we’ve seen similar spikes before. For now, we’d caution against interpreting the latest developments as confirmation large-scale... 9th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency calm continues ahead of key central bank meetings Despite a small rebound in the wake of another solid non-farm payrolls release, the US dollar is broadly unchanged on the week as the recent consolidation phase in currency markets continues. Neither... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Chinese equities may continue to lag those in the US Despite their low absolute and relative valuations, we think China’s equities will continue to lag their US counterparts over the coming year. 5th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2024) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 29th November 2024. We publish more detailed... 3rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Capital Daily Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall? President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
