Capital Daily Stock market winners and losers from the Israel-Iran conflict In general, stock markets tend to be less affected by energy markets today than in the past. But the Israel-Iran conflict has already produced some interesting patterns in stock markets around the... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Korean equities may not outperform Taiwan much longer Taiwan’s stock market has been a key beneficiary of the AI boom and was one of the top performers in the world in 2024. This year though, equities in fellow Asian tech heavyweight Korea have taken... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed caution may threaten Treasuries yet We continue to think Treasury yields will rise, as the Fed stays on hold longer than investors expect. We are re-sending this email notification due to earlier technical issues, and apologise to any... 19th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of Israel-Iran escalation and markets Fears that the US may get involved in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have led to another pick-up in oil prices and renewed jitters across financial markets. The impact so far remains limited, but as... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily JGBs still vulnerable to tighter BoJ policy Although we’ve become less confident the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its policy rate again this year given its view of the risks to growth and inflation, for now we are sticking to our forecast... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (June 25) The rise in home sales in May suggests a nascent recovery is underway in the housing market following a tariff-induced shock. While we see further upside for house prices this year, as lower mortgage... 16th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of (the lack of) market reaction to Israel-Iran Despite the further escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the impact on major financial markets has remained relatively limited. Unless there is actual (not just feared) disruption... 16th June 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Middle East escalation offers a lifeline for the dollar The dollar has recovered some of the ground it lost earlier in the week in the wake of Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran. While that still leaves the greenback near its lowest level in more than... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Israel-Iran escalation and global markets At the time of writing, global markets were in a “risk-off” mood after Israel’s strikes on Iran. We think there are three key initial points to make. 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar still can’t catch a break President Trump’s latest tariff threats, combined with some softer US price and employment data, has sent the US dollar to its lowest level, in aggregate, in more than three years. There are still... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at equities and tariffs President Trump’s recent suggestion that he may yet ratchet US tariffs higher highlights how much uncertainty there still is around both where tariff rates will eventually settle and the US policy... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal mess to push bond spreads wider Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the... 10th June 2025 · 5 mins read
