Capital Daily

Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings

October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The US election and market implications for EMs

We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president...

1st November 2024 · 15 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct .24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But the extent of the recovery hinges on the scale of fiscal stimulus, which remains uncertain. Our base case is...

1st November 2024 · 1 min read

Bonds & Equities

How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields?

While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP...

31st October 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds...

31st October 2024 · 0 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery

The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of today’s sell-off in Gilts

The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less...

30th October 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger

This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore...

30th October 2024 · 16 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs

EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Three key points on markets & the US election

With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer.

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico?

A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import...

29th October 2024 · 6 mins read