Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2025) Capital inflows into EM bond markets appear to have surged over the past month, but outflows from EM equities picked up. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope in the event of a spike in capital... 27th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear... 27th August 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets and the latest threat to Fed independence Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dovish Powell & pushy Trump halt the dollar’s rebound The dollar has given back most of its gains from earlier in the week after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech cemented expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That leaves the... 22nd August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for non-US equities? Though future changes to US tariffs could still cause some volatility in equity markets, we think other factors will mean equities outside the US continue to make decent gains for the rest of this... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Where do markets stand ahead of Jackson Hole? US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in... 21st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Event UK Economy Roundtable – Political risk and the UK economic and market outlook 24th February 2026, 9:00AM GMT Questions about the future of the Keir Starmer government are swirling and, with key local elections looming, they are unlikely to fade anytime soon.
Capital Daily Chinese government bonds’ fortunes could still turn We think Chinese government bond yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts. 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Low volatility in Treasuries isn’t necessarily a worrying sign One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ongoing equity rotation We don’t think the relatively unusual rotations within the US stock market are a sign that the relentless march of US equities, and especially the big tech sectors leading the way, is nearly at an end... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2025) The fourth consecutive rise in home sales in July means that the housing market is developing close to our expectations, with prices stabilising last month. Housing starts recorded another strong... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Reassessing the dollar outlook ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting continue to solidify. We now expect policymakers will opt for a 25bp cut next month, and a cumulative... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
