Capital Daily What to make of the drama in Asian FX We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Heads I lose, tails you win” for the dollar The dollar is ending the week on the backfoot, despite the ongoing normalisation and returning risk appetite across financial markets, as well as a generally decent set of US economic data. Somewhat... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Resilient payrolls data point to higher Treasury yields The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Did the stock market just send another false recession signal? Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The BoJ, JGB yields and the risk of capital repatriation Despite the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone today we think it won’t be long before JGB yields start to rise again. And even though concerns about Japanese capital repatriation have seemingly been back on... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone equity outperformance is on borrowed time We think the recent outperformance of euro-zone equities over US ones has run its course. 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese bank outperformance has a bit further to go Japanese banks are the one sector benefitting from the BoJ’s tightening cycle as higher interest rates lift their income by more than their expenses. And although they’ve struggled more recently amid... 30th April 2025 · 19 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 25) US tariffs will start to weigh on China’s export growth soon. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but it won’t be enough... 29th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last? The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sorting through markets’ mixed messages Financial markets have staged a robust recovery over the past couple of weeks, even if they are for the most part not quite back to square one after the post-2nd April turmoil. Given the ongoing... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy financial conditions on the mend The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
