Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Chinese equities may continue to lag those in the US Despite their low absolute and relative valuations, we think China’s equities will continue to lag their US counterparts over the coming year. 5th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2024) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 29th November 2024. We publish more detailed... 3rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Capital Daily Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall? President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Is the gold rally over? Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidation for now; yen rally likely to continue The US dollar has finally hit a speedbump this week, with the DXY index registering its first weekly drop since late September. Given the continued resilience of the US economy – we expect next week’s... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
