Equities Update

Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities

We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be...

11th February 2025 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

FX Weekly: Tariff relief may prove fleeting for currency markets

The dollar’s boost from tariff announcements last weekend proved short-lived and, despite rallying a bit in response to the latest Employment Report, the greenback is set to end the week lower against...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

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Drop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects

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China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

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Drop-In: Is the dollar’s global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos?

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The chaos over US tariffs – and the subsequent fallout in financial markets – has raised fundamental questions about the role of the US dollar within the global economy and in

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Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response

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With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s

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Drop-In: US-China tariffs rollback – Does this mark a lasting ceasefire in the trade war?

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Markets have received a boost from news that the US and China have agreed to a significant rollback of tariffs.

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Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question

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Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to

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Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook

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Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner.

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Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond?

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The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.

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Drop-In: What Trump’s tariffs mean for Asian economies and markets

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The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies.

Capital Daily

Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound

We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound.

6th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

How Trump’s tariff policy is shaping our view of markets

Despite Donald Trump cutting deals with Mexico and Canada, we are not backtracking from our revised view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines for the next six months. What’s more, if US tariffs end...

6th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Markets Update

Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges

Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as...

5th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

A few observations from the market reaction to tariffs

While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025.

4th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Trump’s tariffs roil markets: what next?

US President Trump has ended weeks of speculation and announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. We think there are a few points to note on their implications for global markets.

3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read