Capital Daily Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last? The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sorting through markets’ mixed messages Financial markets have staged a robust recovery over the past couple of weeks, even if they are for the most part not quite back to square one after the post-2nd April turmoil. Given the ongoing... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy financial conditions on the mend The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar rebound probably has a bit further to run Financial markets have continued to stabilise and the dollar has finally rebounded a little over the past few days. More than anything, that appears to reflect relief after the Trump administration... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus Rumours of the dollar’s demise: still mostly exaggerated? The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent... 25th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Worst may be over for the US dollar We suspect the US dollar will recover some lost ground over the coming months as its usual relationship with rate differentials reasserts itself. 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Can’t get no (further) relief Despite further encouraging headlines on tariff reduction, a relief rally in Asian markets trading today has been notable by its absence. This reinforces our view that further gains in equity markets... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Relief rally built on shaky foundations Both US equities and government bonds have staged a relief rally over the past 24 hours, as concerns about Fed independence and the trade war have eased. But the fact that the rally was sparked... 23rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on Powell points to steeper curve Fears over the independence of the Fed can now be added to the growing list of things troubling investors. Market moves over the past couple of days shed some light on the likely market consequences... 22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar keeps sliding despite calmer markets While the turmoil across financial markets has eased a bit this week, the dollar has continued to weaken across the board. The gap between actual exchange rates and what short-term interest rate... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Would an equity crash spell disaster for the economy? The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
