Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We... 14th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this equity correction will last long Even after tumbling today amid US-China trade tensions, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. That’s despite investors seemingly believing that the risks around US inflation are increasingly... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US Treasury market keep calm and carry on? The gradual decline of volatility in the US Treasury market over recent months has helped underpin the buoyant mood in equity and credit markets. But, even if Treasury market volatility does not flare... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update UK-US valuation gap reflects more than just AI hype We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily NZD may have hit its low, but we see downside elsewhere The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest bond market mess While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
