FX Markets Weekly Wrap Shutdown stasis looms for the dollar The dollar has weakened a little this week on the back of some softer US employment and activity data. The US government shutdown does not appear to have made much impact, consistent with previous... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily For JGBs, the data are more important than the politics Regardless of who wins Japan’s LDP leadership election this weekend, we expect a further sell-off in long-dated JGBs over the next year or two. 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: election could derail recent fiscal progress Brazil’s government has brought its primary budget more or less back into balance over the past year, which has helped to improve investor confidence and drive a rally in Brazilian bonds. But... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the soaring US stock market is reinforcing ‘home bias’ The US stock market’s relentless grind higher – the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday – and its accompanying outperformance of stock markets elsewhere are both reinforcing US residents’... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Global renminbi usage rising, but only slowly Chinese officials have been trying to boost global usage of the renminbi for over two decades. Some progress has been made, with new BIS data placing the currency’s share in global FX turnover at a... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Softening labour market bigger worry than US shutdown History suggests the US government shutdown is unlikely to make much impact on financial markets even if it drags on for some time. The bigger issue is the continued softening of the US labour market... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily G10 FX divergence may be a sign of things to come While major developed-market currencies have mostly headed in the same direction against the US dollar this year, that’s come to a halt this month. We think fortunes will continue to diverge, to some... 30th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Why the ‘bubble’ in the S&P 500 isn’t ready to burst It’s hardly surprising there is renewed talk of a stock market bubble in the US with the S&P 500 back near a record high. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if the index ended this year above our... 29th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk... 29th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar enjoys a broad rally The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although political... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
