Capital Daily What to make of the latest tech share washout Another tough day for shares in the semiconductor sector highlights just how far the bar for a successful earnings announcement has been raised, and how reliant the overall tech equity boom remains on... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily AI still key to US equity gains, and we expect more We don’t think the AI rally has run out of steam, despite the mixed performance of tech stocks lately. But if tech’s troubles do resume in earnest, we think the chances of a sustained “positive... 6th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham on the defensive, it’s markets not rules that matter How to achieve the government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 will be a far bigger problem for prospective PM Burnham than the £4.7bn defence “black hole”. And a bit of... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Expect more sell-offs even as the AI bubble inflates further The tech sell-off doesn’t necessarily herald the imminent end of the AI bubble. Indeed, volatility could pick up quite a bit more, perhaps resulting in further sharp (but short-lived) drawdowns even... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls disappointment unlikely to prevent higher US rates A softer US non-farm payrolls report pours a bit of cold water on the idea that the US economy is overheating. However, we continue to think that the FOMC will stick to its hawkish stance, and that... 2nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus What could burst the “bubble” in AI earnings expectations? AI-related equity markets may be approaching a point where earnings expectations and capital expenditure assumptions become difficult to sustain. A correction in these expectations could trigger a... 1st July 2026 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury curve may invert again The Treasury yield curve has flattened over recent weeks despite an offsetting fall in inflation expectations. We wouldn’t be surprised if this curve inverted, but we don’t think a US recession is... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Low valuations won’t help Brazilian equities much We think Brazilian equities will underperform most other EM equity indices this year as commodity prices fall back and political risk remains a problem. In our view, Brazil’s equity market does not... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the never-ending “yentervention” cycle With the USD/JPY rate edging its way through another “line in the sand”, a further round of intervention from the Japanese authorities may well be in the offing. As the past few years have... 30th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 26) The US-Iran deal has triggered a slump in energy prices providing relief to Africa’s energy importers, particularly those in East Africa. Energy exporters such as Angola and Nigeria will see their... 30th June 2026 · 0 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2026) The energy shock has weighed on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the monsoon has been weak... 30th June 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen even as fiscal strains linger Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to accelerate over the coming years and most of our growth forecasts lie above the consensus. At the same time, the backdrop of low inflation (by the region’s... 29th June 2026 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Bunds could leave Treasuries behind We expect the Treasury rally to run out of steam but think bunds could gain further, weighing on the euro. The yen may eventually fare better, though. 29th June 2026 · 5 mins read
