Capital Daily Waning enthusiasm for AI would weigh on Asian stock markets If today’s respite in stock markets doesn’t last, some tech-heavy ones in Asia would be particularly vulnerable to a deeper AI-related pull-back judging by their performance overnight. 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Reliance on tech is a double-edged sword The S&P 500’s reliance on big-tech sectors to drive returns is clearly problematic when sentiment towards those sectors sours, as has happened today. But we think this reliance will ultimately... 4th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily AI rally keeps on trucking in spite of the Fed A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC strikes back; dollar rebound has further to go The dollar has continued to strengthen in the wake of a relatively hawkish message from the FOMC. Combined with a generally more neutral stance from other central banks this week, that has taken the... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC’s return to bond trading signals renewed easing The PBOC’s bond trading operations were initially envisaged as a tool to limit declines in yields. But, alongside policy rate cuts, they are likely to be used to guide yields lower over the coming... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings results could trump the Fed The market reaction to news around US-Asia trade is yet another reminder of how crucial the AI narrative is for the stock market and, accordingly, how significant big tech earnings results today and... 29th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025) EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported... 29th October 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hiatus until Q3 2026 The RBA will leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% on 4th November. And with inflation proving stubborn, the Bank is likely to remain on hold until the second half of next year. That said, a prolonged... 29th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Takaichi, Bessent and the yen tug of war The Japanese yen has rebounded a bit today on the back of US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s latest foray into verbal currency intervention (this time in favour of the yen), but it remains near its... 28th October 2025 · 5 mins read
