Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Indonesia in turmoil – Macro and market implications 9th September 2025, 8:00AM BST The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories.
Event Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes 1st October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank
Event Drop-In: Another French government falls – what next for its economy and markets? 6th October 2025, 3:00PM BST The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook.
Event Drop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond markets 9th September 2025, 10:00AM BST François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year.
Event Markets Drop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risks 30th September 2025, 9:00AM BST US household exposure to equities is at levels not seen in at least 75 years.
Event Drop-In: India in Trump’s firing line – What’s at stake for the economy and markets 14th August 2025, 9:00AM BST India is facing fresh tensions with the Trump administration.
Event Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don’t think the AI equities boom is over 15th October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind.
Event Drop-In: Where is r* heading? Catching up on equilibrium real rates 30th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and
Event Drop-In: Global macro and market risks to watch in 2025’s final stretch 4th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Tariffs in effect. Inflation under debate. Divided central banks. Geopolitical strains. Equities at record highs.
Event Asia Drop-In: Big policy tests for China, India and Indonesia 25th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests.
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What happened to the bond vigilantes? Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. Despite some small wobbles, the big picture is that those nerves have mostly held so far... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil just isn’t big enough to rattle global markets Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty of margin for error when it comes to tariffs Even if tariffs on US imports don’t rise substantially more next month for many countries after yet another delay, who is ‘paying’ for the increases in tariffs that have already occurred and appear... 9th July 2025 · 5 mins read