Capital Daily The AI rally is running on fundamentals, not fumes Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. 20th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in cyclicals looks overdone S&P 500 ‘cyclical’ stocks have underperformed ‘defensive’ ones markedly over the past couple of weeks, even after stripping away the influence of tech firms. We think there is scope for that to... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Why we aren’t worried about US tech valuations The recent plunge in US tech stocks seems partly due to concern about their valuations which, by some metrics, had looked their most stretched since the “dotcom bubble”. This Update argues that those... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How the rollout of AI is affecting sectors in the S&P 500 The boost AI has given to the US stock market since the launch of ChatGPT has been so strong that the S&P 500 would currently be closer to 5,000 without it. It’s therefore hardly surprising that... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech share kerfuffle continues, Gilt debacle déjà vu The renewed sell-off in US tech stocks last week puts even more of a spotlight on the earnings report of AI-bellwether Nvidia this Wednesday: it will set the tone for the wider tech sector over the... 17th November 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Why is the yen still so weak? The Japanese yen continues to suffer from the wide monetary policy gap between Japan and other major economies. We think that gap will gradually narrow and the yen recover some ground over the next... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities’ relative resilience to the AI nerves China’s stock market has fared better than many as investor confidence in the AI boom has faltered, despite having benefited from that boom this year. We suspect it would continue to outperform the US... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the outperformance of European equities Despite outperforming so far this week, we suspect equities in Europe will ultimately fall behind their peers in the US again through the end of 2026. 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Gilts remain the sick man of the bond market? We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank... 13th November 2025 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily Performance of the average stock is not yet a cause for alarm Although the failure of the average US large-cap equity to make any progress since late August is reminiscent of the final stages of the dotcom bubble, we think that some key differences under the... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields probably have further to fall We think a continued softening of the UK labour market and a sizeable tightening of fiscal policy later this month means that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its policy rate further over the next... 11th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tech share meltdown, end of the shutdown? Jitters around US tech stocks reinforce the extent to which the market has become reliant on continued AI optimism. We see little on the fundamentals, though, that points to an imminent bursting of... 10th November 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Equity market underperformance has further to run Foreign investors returned as net buyers of Indian equities over the past month. But we doubt this marks the start of a sustained or broad-based recovery in confidence toward India’s equity market... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs under threat: what it might mean for markets The abolition of tariffs justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act would be bad news for Treasuries, and perhaps not as good for the US dollar and stock market as it might seem. 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
