Bonds Update Calm after the bond market storm The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar falters as fiscal and trade policy concerns grow President Trump’s recommendation of a 50% tariff on the EU gave the dollar only a short-lived boost and the DXY index is still on track to snap a four-week ‘winning’ streak. This looks likely to be... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The JGB sell-off isn’t as worrisome as it might seem We think the yields of Japanese government bonds will continue to rise, but because of BoJ hikes rather than concerns about fiscal sustainability. 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Big is not so beautiful for bonds The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent... 22nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update Revising back up our forecast for the S&P 500 Despite the latest setback in the S&P 500, we are revising back up our end-2025 forecast for the index in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level of 6,250 than the... 22nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The end of the end of US exceptionalism? Debate over the end of US equity exceptionalism had quietened over the past month amid a historic rally, but with US assets selling off today debate may reignite. Our sense is that US stocks will hold... 21st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for Asian currencies The de-escalation of the US-China trade war and the Trump administration’s wider reduction of tariff rates means that a sharp depreciation of the renminbi has become less probable. While we continue... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US downgrade comes at tough time for Treasuries The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem... 19th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trade truce keeps the greenback on the front foot, mostly The de-escalation in the US-China trade war gave the dollar a renewed boost against most G10 currencies this week. But, a fall back in Treasury yields has taken away some of those gains as we head... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Back to square one? Taking stock of the trade war roundtrip One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2nd... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
