What’s a bit different about this latest slump in JGBs
Unlike the rout this spring, the latest sell-off in JGBs seems to have been mainly driven by a more hawkish assessment of Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy across the curve. We forecast the 10-year yield to rise to 2.5% by end-2027, but don’t think this will be accompanied by another meltdown at the very long end of the market like we saw earlier in 2025.
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