FX Markets Outlook Trump win a wild card for our weaker dollar forecast Further out, our base case is that the combination of a generally benign global economic backdrop and a dovish Fed leads to some further US dollar weakness over the next six to twelve months. But... 26th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Will recession in Germany drag stocks there down? We expect equities in Germany to continue rising even though the economy there appears to be in another ‘technical’ recession. But we expect them to lag those elsewhere over the coming year or so. 25th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well... 25th September 2024 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6.0-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth enters a slower phase Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn... 25th September 2024 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stimulus may not offer a lasting boost to stocks Policymakers in China announced major monetary and financial policy stimulus measures today, but we doubt these will be enough to drive a sustained rebound in China’s struggling stock market. 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed’s 50bp has the dollar down, but not necessarily out The FOMC’s decision to kick off its easing cycle with a bang has boosted risk sentiment – with the S&P 500 surging to a new all-time high – and put the US dollar on the backfoot again. However, the US... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles After the Fed recently delivered its first rate cut, we look at previous US loosening cycles to analyse how emerging markets assets have performed. This time around we expect the US to skirt a... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate. 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the easing cycle already priced in? Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early... 19th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economic outlook matters more than “50 vs 25” Policymakers have put themselves in a tricky spot ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC announcement. But whatever the size of the policy rate cut they end up delivering, the outlook for the US economy is... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
