Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Slower growth to trigger more rate cuts EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of... 30th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily G10 FX divergence may be a sign of things to come While major developed-market currencies have mostly headed in the same direction against the US dollar this year, that’s come to a halt this month. We think fortunes will continue to diverge, to some... 30th September 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth has remained broadly stable since the start of the year, despite US tariffs. Still, the economy is weaker than official figures suggest. Fiscal support and exports will continue to be key... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Why the ‘bubble’ in the S&P 500 isn’t ready to burst It’s hardly surprising there is renewed talk of a stock market bubble in the US with the S&P 500 back near a record high. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if the index ended this year above our... 29th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk... 29th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar enjoys a broad rally The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although political... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs continued last month, with the restart of Fed easing and further declines in the dollar supporting bond inflows in particular. While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over... 26th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Looser monetary policy, stronger growth Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 26th September 2025 · 19 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s lifting of foreign ownership limits not a gamechanger Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
