Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Case-Shiller reported a marginal easing in monthly house price pressures in May. But that softening reflects problems with the seasonal-adjustment process. Annual growth was unchanged at a robust 5.6% and, with the inventory of homes continuing to …
25th July 2017
Given the very low level of inventory, the 1.8% m/m drop in existing home sales in June was expected. Sales have now made no progress over the past year, even as robust housing demand means those homes that are on the market are selling at a record pace. …
24th July 2017
Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears that buying a US home were set to become harder is …
20th July 2017
Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market conditions will help single-family starts to rise …
19th July 2017
Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that cautious home appraisals are limiting the degree to which …
14th July 2017
Lacklustre housing starts, which dropped for the third month in a row in May, will do nothing to ease the very low levels of inventory. In turn, low inventory is holding back search and sales activity. Even with jobs being created at a decent pace, and …
12th July 2017
The Case-Shiller index has reported a sharp easing in seasonally-adjusted house price growth in the early stages of this year. But there are good reasons to think that the legacy of the surge in distressed sales seen during the financial crisis is …
7th July 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase lost some steam in June, with the 0.9% m/m increase the smallest since February. With mortgage interest rates once again on the rise, and a severe shortage of homes for sale, housing market activity will struggle …
6th July 2017
Annual house price inflation was a robust 6.6% in May according to CoreLogic. The chronic lack of inventory is behind the rise, and with limited chance of inventory levels improving this year, house price growth is likely to stay close to that rate for …
5th July 2017
The drop in the average floor area of new homes started in the first quarter suggests builders are now moving towards constructing more affordable homes. And, given that a lack of cheaper homes has been one factor holding this segment of the housing …
28th June 2017
The 0.2% m/m gain in house prices was the smallest gain on the Case-Shiller measure since May 2014, and appears to confirm that price pressures have been easing since February. However, an easing in house price pressures is hard to square with very tight …
27th June 2017
As expected, new home sales bounced back from their large drop in April, with a solid 2.9% m/m rise in May. A strong economic backdrop and relatively large inventory of new homes should underpin sales for the rest of the year. But with the median sales …
23rd June 2017
The 1.1% m/m rise in existing home sales in May was better than expected, although that only partly revered the previous month’s decline. The bad news is that May’s rise in sales has only worsened the shortage of inventory, with the number of existing …
21st June 2017
The latest drop in mortgage interest rates has not boosted housing market activity, which is being constrained by a severe lack of inventory. With housing starts faltering, we doubt inventory levels will improve much this year, so home sales will see …
20th June 2017
Housing starts once again surprised on the downside in May, contracting for the third month in a row. The multifamily sector is primarily responsible for the decline, but single-family starts have also been lacklustre. However, with a severe shortage of …
16th June 2017
The share of households seeing now as a good time to sell has exceeded the share seeing now as a good to buy for the first time since records began in 2010. But, past rises in selling sentiment have not been accompanied by a significant rise in actual …
14th June 2017
Mortgage applications jumped by 7% in the week ending 2nd of June. Despite a fall in mortgage rates, that rise was driven not by remortaging, but by applications for home purchase, which were last higher in mid-2010. … Mortgage Applications …
7th June 2017
Despite a strong economic backdrop, housing activity has stalled since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase have done no more than hold their ground since their post-election jump, and existing home sales in April were …
6th June 2017
After seasonal-adjustment, CoreLogic reported that house price gains stabilised at a robust 0.8% m/m in April. A lack of homes for sale is acting to dissuade some buyers from entering the market, which has kept a lid on house price pressures. But, by the …
The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As competition to secure tenants for these new buildings has …
1st June 2017
Disappointing activity data of late has not prevented headline rates of house price inflation from picking up again in the year to March. We expect house price inflation edge up further in the second quarter, before plateauing in the second half of the …
30th May 2017
The inventory of existing single-family homes for sale declined once again in April, and now stands at a 22-year low. That lack of supply contributed to a modest drop in home sales, despite some signs that first-time buyers are returning to the market. …
24th May 2017
New home sales recorded their largest monthly decline in over two years in April, reversing nearly all of the gains seen since the start of the year. Given the extremely low numbers of existing homes for sale, potential buyers should be looking more …
23rd May 2017
Survey evidence which points to relatively subdued levels of confidence in the housing market is not a sign that households are unduly worried about the prospect of rising interest rates. Rather, it is further proof of the adverse effects that very low …
17th May 2017
Housing starts surprised on the downside in April, dropping by 2.6% m/m and taking starts back to where they were a year ago. While the building permit data suggest the chance of a recovery in May is slim, with market conditions very tight, the …
16th May 2017
Affordability constraints have weighed on rental growth in recent months which, in theory, could lead to slower house price gains. However, the large number of variables which influence house prices mean the direct relationship between rental and house …
11th May 2017
The inventory of homes for sale continues to decline. The months’ supply of existing single-family homes dropped to just 3.9 in March, the lowest reading since records began in 1982. The lack of homes for sale has led to increased competition among …
9th May 2017
Despite a drop in mortgage rates, mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinance essentially just held their ground in April. That subdued picture reflects a lack of homes for sale, as potential home buyers have delayed putting in a mortgage …
3rd May 2017
President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with households set to enjoy an overall tax cut, the housing market …
2nd May 2017
The March CoreLogic house price index offered no evidence of a let-up in house price growth. After seasonal-adjustment, the 0.9% m/m gain was the same as that seen in February. That pushed the annual growth rate up to 7.1%, a 34-month high. Very tight …
The gap that has developed between pending and existing home sales looks to be one more consequence of very low inventory levels. With such limited choice, buyers are increasingly reluctant to pull out once an offer has been accepted, leading to a rise in …
28th April 2017
The homeownership rate edged up in the first quarter of 2017, but a recovery has been held back by the low number of homes available to buy. In turn, the shortage of existing homes is, in part, down to the large number of vacant homes being held back from …
27th April 2017
The pace of house price gains slowed in February according to Case-Shiller, with the smallest month-on-month rise since July last year. But a strong rise in new home sales in March has pushed down further on inventory levels, and therefore we doubt this …
25th April 2017
Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales are unlikely to post further material gains over the …
21st April 2017
Following a dip towards the end of last year, the share of multifamily starts has recovered and builders have become more optimistic towards the sector. Our expectation for a shift toward single-family homes during 2017 may, therefore, be delayed. But, …
20th April 2017
Although larger than expected, the 6.8% m/m drop in starts in March was not significant given the instability of the monthly data. Looking ahead, high home-builder confidence and a chronic shortage of existing homes for sale both point to a steady rise in …
18th April 2017
For the most part, states with strong income growth and low homeowner vacancy rates will see the largest gains in single-family housing starts. The majority of those are in the West, although Florida is a notable exception. However, a high negative equity …
12th April 2017
Housing market activity has been stable since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase and mortgage interest rates are more-orless where they were in December, as are existing home sales. Housing starts have also marked time, …
10th April 2017
As oil prices have seen a modest pick-up, so has employment growth in many energy-producing states. But, given the lags between changes in the labour market and its impact on the housing market, as well as the high levels of vacancy in rental markets …
6th April 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase and refinance, as well as mortgage interest rates, were all stable during March. Indeed, all three have barely changed since the end of last year. Interest rates should resume their upward trend soon but, thanks to …
5th April 2017
Very low inventory levels and steady demand combined to drive up house prices in February. A 0.9% m/m gain after seasonal-adjustment was the fastest rate of growth since April 2013. Anyone looking to buy during the spring will find slim pickings on the …
4th April 2017
The executive order requiring a review of the Waters of the United States rule has pushed homebuilder confidence to a 12-year high. However, the rule has been suspended since its introduction in 2015 and the executive order will do nothing to solve labour …
30th March 2017
A strong labour market, robust consumer confidence and the gradual return of first-time buyers means that the demand for homes will see further gains even as mortgage interest rates rise. But with inventory levels unlikely to improve much over the next …
29th March 2017
House prices made a strong start to 2017, with a 0.6% m/m gain in January. That pushed the annual rate up to a 31-month high of 5.9%. Very tight market conditions suggest that price growth will continue at similar rates for the rest of this year, as …
28th March 2017
Good weather and a lack of existing homes for sale gave the new homes sector a boost in February, generating a robust 6.1% m/m rise in sales. A shortage of cheaper, starter homes will weigh on sales over the next few months. But a strong labour market and …
23rd March 2017
Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5.6% by the end of 2018. We would be concerned, however, …
22nd March 2017
A lack of inventory weighed on existing home sales in February, which contracted by 3.7% m/m. With little chance of a sustained rise in the number of existing homes for sale over the next year, sales are set to tread water even as the demand for homes …
Other things equal, higher Treasury yields means investors will require a higher return from property. Some investors may therefore start easing back on acquisitions, putting downward pressure on prices in the multifamily sector. But with a large part of …
16th March 2017
A rise in single-family construction helped total housing starts edge out a small monthly gain of 3% in February. With homebuilder confidence at a 12-year high, partly down to an expectation that regulations will become less onerous, single-family starts …
Strong employment growth and an expectation that the Fed will hike interest rates at its March meeting have pushed up Treasury yields, meaning that the recent drop in mortgage rates will be short-lived. But thanks to increasing confidence and earnings …
13th March 2017
