Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of 2019. But the dip should prove short-lived. Assuming a …
19th March 2020
The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender caution and capacity constraints, with enforced home …
17th March 2020
Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the magnitude of the shock. Given they can be carried out from the …
12th March 2020
A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in the third quarter, a 16-year low. That cut available …
3rd March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and increased caution will act to widen the spread against …
25th February 2020
Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage lending standards and a record low number of homes for …
20th February 2020
The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely unscathed. But if a widespread outbreak occurred, a …
12th February 2020
A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market, but the impact is unlikely to be large. From close to a …
4th February 2020
While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a relaxation in credit conditions, that will limit house …
31st January 2020
There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of cheaper homes, that supports our above-consensus call for …
23rd January 2020
Single-family housing starts and new home sales set for another good year A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales …
21st January 2020
With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices. Given the GSEs have been instructed to act …
10th January 2020
With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some extent, but a decline in the number of households who …
3rd December 2019
We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting factors such as modest economic growth, tightening credit …
25th November 2019
Tight supply of affordable homes, and a relatively large increase in their price, are encouraging builders back to the starter home sector. But a slowing economy and tighter credit conditions rule out a substantial shift to cheaper homes. Instead, we …
14th November 2019
Households frustrated by the lack of affordable single-family homes for sale will find conditions are no better in the rental market, where the number of homes available for under $1,250 a month has dropped 40% since 2013. That will boost investor demand …
12th November 2019
The number of vacant single-family homes for sale has dropped 25% since the start of 2012. But the situation is far worse at the cheaper end of the market, where the inventory of homes priced under $250,000 has halved over the same period. That will …
31st October 2019
Some leading indicators of house price growth, such as the size of mortgage approvals and months’ supply of new homes on the market, are pointing to an acceleration in growth to around 5% y/y by the end of the year. But a slowing economy and tightening …
22nd October 2019
Over the past couple of years buyers of high-end homes in New York City have been hit by higher taxes, and can no longer hide their identity. That has cut home buyer demand and house prices, and may lead to an increase in rental supply. But, at the same …
16th October 2019
A hike in the threshold at which mortgages require a home appraisal, from $250,000 to $400,000, is long overdue and has the potential to reduce closing times, raise closing rates and boost house prices. However, with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by the …
9th October 2019
A surge in demand for refinancing has stretched lenders’ capacity, lengthening the time it takes to close a mortgage. That has disrupted the usual relationship between pending and existing home sales. While that disruption should not last long, it means …
26th September 2019
Rent controls usually discourage new rental developments. But the Californian bill that is set to be signed into law may in fact boost the construction of new units. New rental buildings are exempt from the restrictions and, by ruling out any new local …
18th September 2019
The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be playing a role. We expect the spread to ease back over the …
13th September 2019
Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening will continue. Alongside low inventory, that will act as …
29th August 2019
Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the market is starting from a position of a strength, and a lack …
22nd August 2019
With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and tighter mortgage lending standards argue against a …
19th August 2019
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack of inventory are keeping that component of sentiment …
14th August 2019
The number of mortgage applications for home purchase jumped earlier this year, but those buyers came up against the tightest market conditions for 40-years. Increased competition for homes crowded out cash buyers, which helps to explain the growing gap …
2nd August 2019
A steady decline in home sales last year pushed the homeownership rate to a 1½-year low in the second quarter, and we doubt it will recover over the next couple of years. A slowing economy will prevent the recent drop in mortgage rates from boosting …
26th July 2019
A bill which recently passed the House to cut the FHA upfront mortgage premium by 25 bps for first-time buyers who take a financial management course is too small to halt the downward trend in the FHA market share. While a weaker labour market will slow …
18th July 2019