Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Single-family starts see further gains on back of strong new home demand Single-family starts and building permits had another strong month in September, as builders increased production on the back of buoyant demand and dwindling inventory. A moderation …
20th October 2020
Mortgage rates fall again, but will soon bottom out Mortgage applications were once again stable in September, with a small fall in refinancing applications offset by a small rise in home purchase demand. Mortgage rates hit another record low by the end …
7th October 2020
House prices rise as inventory hits record lows House price growth saw a further acceleration in July, as solid housing demand and low inventory put upward pressure on home values. With mortgage rates set to stay close to record lows, and no improvement …
29th September 2020
Supply of new homes falls to 57-year low Another strong rise in new home sales in August, to a 14-year high, pushed the months’ supply of homes to its lowest since records began in 1963. With housing starts constrained by surging lumber prices and lot …
24th September 2020
House price growth accelerates as demand booms House price growth saw another strong gain in July, as surging demand and record low inventory put upward pressure on values. But with demand set to ease over the coming months, and mortgage lending standards …
23rd September 2020
Growth in existing home sales moderates Existing home sales rose again in August, although at a more modest pace compared to June and July. With pent-up demand from the spring having now worked itself through, unemployment elevated and inventory at record …
22nd September 2020
Single-family starts return to pre-COVID levels on back of strong demand At 1.021m annualised, single-family starts have now fully reversed their COVID-related drop. And, with building permits hitting a 13-year high in August and homebuilder confidence at …
17th September 2020
Mortgage demand stable as interest rates fall to record low Following a surge in May, mortgage applications for home purchase have since stabilised at a level around 25% higher than last year. Pent-up demand, record low mortgage rates and some evidence of …
2nd September 2020
Housing market recovery gathers pace New home sales surged to a 13½-year high in July, as record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and a shortage of existing homes for sale all boosted activity. Tight markets and rising demand have also …
25th August 2020
Existing home sales surge to 13½-year high Existing home sales had another strong month in July, surging to a 13½-year high. Pent-up demand from the spring, record low mortgage rates and some impact from households moving to the suburbs has helped drive …
21st August 2020
Homebuilder confidence hits record high and starts surge Housing starts surged for the second consecutive month in July, and single-family starts are now only 10% below their pre-COVID level. Flight to the suburbs may explain some of the increase in …
18th August 2020
Home purchase demand eases back despite record low mortgage rates Mortgage applications for home purchase trended down over July, even as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a record low 3.14%. The working through of pent-up demand from the spring, record …
5th August 2020
House price growth slowdown begins House prices rose by just 0.1% m/m in May on the Case-Shiller index, which together with a slowdown on the FHFA index indicates that the collapse in sales caused by the coronavirus is now weighing on prices. The rapid …
28th July 2020
New home sales reverse all their COVID-related drop New home sales have now more than reversed the drop seen earlier in the year, reaching a 13-year high in June. The sales outlook is positive - new home buyer traffic has returned to 22-year highs, and …
24th July 2020
Home sales bounce back, but recovery will be slower from here The reopening of the economy and pent-up demand from the spring helped existing home sales bounce back in June. However, with a second wave of infections leading to renewed shutdowns and …
22nd July 2020
Housing starts surge on back of strong new home demand Housing starts bounced-back in June, and are now down only 4% y/y. A surge in housing demand to 10-year highs, and a lack of existing home inventory, has boosted new home sales and reversed all the …
17th July 2020
Home purchase demand flattens out as country reopens Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over the last two weeks of June, even as mortgage rates fell to record lows. The pent-up demand from the spring buying season now looks to have …
1st July 2020
House price growth accelerates, but slow down on the way The further acceleration in annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure in April reflected the strength of the housing market at the start of the year, when the impact of the coronavirus …
30th June 2020
Slower house price growth but no slump on the horizon Following a gain of 0.1% m/m in March, the modest 0.2% m/m rise house prices in April shows a marked weakening in house price growth. It is too soon to tell how much of an impact the coronavirus has …
24th June 2020
New home sales benefit from reopening New home sales reversed most of their coronavirus related decline in May, helped by the gradual reopening of the country. A healthy level of inventory means new sales are well-placed to take advantage of the recent …
23rd June 2020
Existing home sales bottom-out Existing home sales saw another substantial decline in May but with the country reopening, and housing demand surging on the back of record low mortgage interest rates, we suspect they have now bottomed out. That said, …
22nd June 2020
Strong housing demand boosts single-family building permits Single-family housing starts were unchanged in May but, helped by strong housing demand, building permits posted their largest month-on-month gain in 30 years. With more of the country opening …
17th June 2020
Home purchase demand continues to surge Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in each of the past seven weeks, and in May were up 2.7% y/y. With the unemployment rate at a record high, that strength in demand is surprising. Record low …
3rd June 2020
New home sales show surprise increase in April New home sales edged higher in April, after recording their largest month-on-month slump in over six years during March. The latest rise was in line with recent improvements in mortgage applications, but …
26th May 2020
Existing home sales drop to nine-year low Existing home sales saw another sharp drop in April, as the shutdown of large parts of the country disrupted housing market activity. Despite a strong recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase, we doubt …
21st May 2020
Record fall in single-family housing starts The shutdown of large parts of the country meant single-family housing starts recorded their largest month-on-month fall on record in April. In the Northeast starts were down over 70% compared to February. But …
19th May 2020
Surprise recovery in home purchase demand Mortgage applications for home purchase were down overall in April, but saw a decent recovery over the second half of the month. Record low mortgage rates will have supported demand to some extent, but we also …
6th May 2020
Annual house price growth accelerates prior to COVID Low inventory and mortgage rates helped house price growth accelerate over the turn of the year. But the sharp drop in housing demand caused by the coronavirus means prices are set for a modest fall …
28th April 2020
New home sales see largest month-on-month drop in six years The impact of the coronavirus on the housing market was made clear in March new home sales, which saw the largest month-on-month fall in over six years. Subdued mortgage applications point to a …
23rd April 2020
Drop in existing home sales only the start of collapse in activity Existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in 4½-years in March, but given sales are recorded with a time lag that only represents the start of the fall in activity. …
21st April 2020
Coronavirus disruption leads to sharp fall in housing starts Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded large declines in March, as the coronavirus cut housing demand and disrupted the ability of homebuilders to work. Single-family starts will …
16th April 2020
Home purchase demand to halve Distress in the MBS market meant mortgage rates were volatile over March, but they started and ended the month at a record low of 3.47%. While that has helped refinance demand, applications for home purchase have collapsed as …
1st April 2020
New home sales face coronavirus shock from a strong position New home sales edged back from a 13-year high in February, but are now set for a sharp downturn as the coronavirus shuts down many parts of the home buying process. However, the high level of …
24th March 2020
Existing home sales set for 35% drop Existing home sales saw a strong gain of 6.5% m/m in February, but with the whole of California being locked down the risks are building to our initial view that sales will see a 35% drop in the second quarter. …
20th March 2020
Rise in single-family housing starts pre-dates virus impact The rise in single-family housing starts in February pre-dates the outbreak of the coronavirus, and the outlook for starts has worsened considerably over the next few months. It will take time …
18th March 2020
Lower rates unlikely to boost applications for home purchase Concerns over the coronavirus have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows, which helped push mortgage rates to a seven-year low last week. That gave a substantial boost to refinancing …
4th March 2020
New home sales start the year at a 12½-year high Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the next …
26th February 2020
House price growth ends 2019 on a strong note Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead stretched home …
25th February 2020
Existing home inventory sees further declines Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial fall in …
21st February 2020
Warm weather supports housing starts in January The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the next …
19th February 2020
Refinance demand surges as mortgage rates hit three-year low A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in …
5th February 2020
Annual house price growth ticks up Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening mortgage lending …
28th January 2020
Disappointing end to the year, but new home sales set for a strong 2020 New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in …
27th January 2020
Record low inventory means existing home sales will hold steady in 2020 The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even …
22nd January 2020
Single-family starts reach 1 million annualised for first time since 2007 The surge in housing starts in December in part reflects a jump in the volatile multifamily sector and favourable weather conditions. But single-family starts are well-placed for …
17th January 2020
Demand for home purchase mortgages unchanged over 2019 A 1.9% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in December left demand at the end of 2019 unchanged from the start of the year. The boost to demand from lower mortgage interest rates was …
8th January 2020
New home sales well-placed for another strong year The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of …
23rd December 2019
Record low inventory constrains home sales The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled with tighter …
19th December 2019
Single-family starts set for another strong year Single-family building permits increased for the seventh month in a row in November. And, with homebuilder confidence hitting a 20-year high in December, starts are set for another year of steady growth. …
17th December 2019
Concerns around rising interest rates drive up home purchase demand Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand …
4th December 2019