Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Home sales surprise on the upside Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead, we expect sales will …
23rd August 2021
Starts edge back, but set for strong H2 Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts. But falling …
18th August 2021
Housing demand falls further, despite decline in mortgage rates The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are …
4th August 2021
House price growth continues to boom, but slowdown on the horizon House prices showed no signs of slowing in May, with annual growth setting new records on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But with housing demand falling back since the start of …
27th July 2021
Supply constraints push new home sales to 14-month low New homes sales dropped for the third month in a row in June, as homebuilders restricted sales in an effort to catch-up with the backlog of homes sold last year. But builders have reported continued …
26th July 2021
Rise in sales to prove short-lived Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this year. As a result, we …
22nd July 2021
Supply shortages to constrain starts Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back construction. But as these …
20th July 2021
Housing demand returns to pre-pandemic level Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the …
7th July 2021
House prices are booming, but not in a bubble House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a …
29th June 2021
Elevated construction costs distort sales While new home sales declined in May, data for homes that are yet to start construction were stronger, as elevated construction costs caused homebuilders to delay projects. But with falling lumber prices likely to …
23rd June 2021
Slowdown in sales is well under way Record low inventory is weighing on housing market activity, with existing home sales falling to an 11-month low in May. And with booming house prices and rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability, we expect …
22nd June 2021
Falling lumber prices to support starts Single-family starts edged higher in May but have been broadly flat since the start of the year. While worsening affordability is now weighing on the demand for homes, record low inventory and falling lumber prices …
16th June 2021
Stretched affordability weighs on housing demand Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some support to …
2nd June 2021
House price growth regains momentum House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home sales dropped 5.9% …
25th May 2021
Home sales have further to fall Existing home sales recorded another decline in April and are down 13% from the peak last October. Home sales are being constrained by record low inventory, which will continue to weigh on housing market activity in the …
21st May 2021
High lumber prices weigh on starts Single-family starts dropped back in April and continue to underperform building permits. This adds to the evidence that high lumber and other material prices are constraining housing starts. But lumber prices are now …
18th May 2021
Easing credit conditions won’t stop home purchase demand from falling Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some …
5th May 2021
House price growth to slow to 5% y/y by end-2021 House prices continued to climb in February, with Case-Shiller and the FHFA both reporting growth of around 12% y/y. But while annual growth rates are at record highs on the FHFA measure, month-on-month …
27th April 2021
New home sales surge to 15-year high Following weather-related disruption in February, new home sales jumped in March to close to a 15-year high. A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates this year will weigh on demand to some extent, but the key …
23rd April 2021
Home sales continue journey towards pre-COVID trend Tight inventory pushed existing home sales down to a seven-month low in March. Indeed, the number of homes for sale is at record lows and this will continue to constrain home sales this year. What’s …
22nd April 2021
Starts bounce back after winter storms Homebuilding recovered quickly from February’s adverse weather, with single-family starts rising to close to a 15-year high. If it were not for constraints on production, including soaring lumber prices, starts would …
16th April 2021
Record low inventory and stretched affordability to weigh on home demand Home purchase mortgage applications edged out a small gain in March but, even as the economy reopens, we doubt that is a sign that home demand will see additional gains this year. …
7th April 2021
House prices make further strong gains House prices made further strong gains in January, although there are tentative signs that month-on-month growth is starting to ease. With mortgage rates now rising, and set to increase further over the year, that …
30th March 2021
Winter storms hit new home sales Severe weather, tight inventory and worsening affordability pushed new home sales down to 775,000 annualised in February. And with mortgage rates likely to rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, home sales face strong …
23rd March 2021
Home sales start to come back to earth The boom in housing market activity started to moderate in February, with existing home sales recording a substantial drop. Record low inventory will be constraining activity, as will worsening affordability. Looking …
22nd March 2021
Winter storms and record high lumber prices delay housing starts Single-family starts fell for the second consecutive month in February, as winter storms and record high lumber prices disrupted construction. But as those constraints ease, housing starts …
17th March 2021
Higher mortgage rates and lean inventory hit housing demand The mortgage market came off the boil in February, with home purchase applications recording their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the pandemic last April. A rise in mortgage …
3rd March 2021
New home sales rise, but slowdown on the horizon New home sales rose for the second consecutive month in January to 923,000 annualised. But rising mortgage interest rates and tight inventory point to a slowdown over 2021. Indeed, mortgage applications for …
24th February 2021
Rising mortgage rates to weigh on house prices The house price boom continued in December, with month-on-month gains exceeding 1.0% on the FHFA measure for the seventh consecutive month. However, rising mortgage interest rates will weigh on affordability, …
23rd February 2021
Home sales continue to surprise on the upside Existing home sales managed to eke out a small gain in January, even as inventory fell to new record lows. But the lack of supply means activity will fall back to earth later in 2021, reinforced by rising …
19th February 2021
Housing starts fall as construction constraints weigh heavy January’s 12.2% m/m decline in single-family housing starts reversed the solid gains seen in December. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to a decent year …
18th February 2021
Threat of higher interest rates drives up mortgage demand The threat of higher interest rates drove mortgage demand higher in January, with refinancing activity seeing a particularly large gain. A narrowing spread means we expect the upcoming rise in …
3rd February 2021
New home sales lose momentum The small gain in new home sales in December continues the run of falling or weak sales seen since August of last year. That moderation in sales is set to persist in 2021, as worsening affordability, the exhaustion of pent-up …
28th January 2021
House price growth surges to record high House price growth continued to surge in November, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting strong gains. At 11% y/y, the rise in the FHFA index is the highest since records began in 1992. But the current boom in …
26th January 2021
Surprise rise in home sales Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to affordability they provided. …
22nd January 2021
Permit gains point to a strong start of the year for homebuilders Single-family starts rebounded in December, recording their largest month-on-month gain since June. While production constraints will continue to weigh on starts, we are relatively upbeat …
21st January 2021
Home purchase demand starts to drop back Even as mortgage rates stayed close to record lows, applications for home purchase declined in each of the last three weeks of December. With interest rates not set to fall further and the boost to affordability …
6th January 2021
House price boom continues, for now Record low mortgage rates, surging home sales and tight inventory pushed annual house price growth to a 6½-year high in October, but we doubt the boom in prices will last for long. The past gain in prices has already …
29th December 2020
New home sales constrained by tight inventory New home sales fell 11.0% m/m in November, driven by a lack of inventory and pent-up demand from earlier in the year coming to an end. But easing demand is yet to feed through to house price growth, which …
23rd December 2020
Sales fall as inventory constraints bite Existing home sales fell for the first time in five months in November, as record low inventory and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the spring put a dampener on activity. Record low mortgage rates have …
22nd December 2020
Supply constraints weigh on housing starts Single-family starts rose for the seventh consecutive month in November, but at a slower pace. And with production constraints starting to weigh on homebuilder confidence, we think that gains will slow further …
17th December 2020
Thanksgiving holiday skews purchase applications higher Issues with seasonal adjustment over the Thanksgiving holiday, when many more people stayed home and perhaps applied for a mortgage, led to a spike in home purchase mortgage applications in the final …
2nd December 2020
Low inventory weighs on home sales New home sales levelled off in October, suggesting that pent-up demand from the spring is running out. In addition, strong sales over the summer months have left the supply of homes for sale at an all-time low, making it …
25th November 2020
House price boom should prove short-lived House price growth is quickly entering boom territory, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a surge in annual gains in September. At 9.1% y/y, the rise on the FHFA index is the highest in almost 15 years. But …
24th November 2020
Sales surprise on the upside, pushing inventory to another record low Existing home sales surprised on the upside in October, rising to a 15-year high. However, even with mortgage rates set to stay low, we expect sales will see some retrenchment over the …
19th November 2020
Surge in homebuilder confidence points to further rise in starts Single-family starts had another strong month in October, and are now up 75% compared to their trough in April. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to …
18th November 2020
Recovery in mortgage applications likely a false dawn Mortgage applications recovered some ground in October, as an upturn in refinancing offset a fall in home purchase demand. But the underlying trend is broadly flat since June and we don’t expect any …
4th November 2020
House price growth gathers steam on back of strong demand House prices had another strong month in August, with annual growth on the FHFA measure surging to 8.1%, a 14-year high. Record low mortgage rates have given a boost to housing demand, and record …
27th October 2020
New home sales drop back for first time since April New home sales dropped back in September, the first contraction since the height of the pandemic in April. Pent-up demand from the spring is now dissipating and tight inventory, particularly of completed …
26th October 2020
Current pace of sales growth cannot be sustained Existing home sales had another strong month in September, and month-on-month growth has now averaged 14% since June. But with housing demand easing back, and inventory getting ever tighter, that pace of …
22nd October 2020