Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Overview – The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The possibility of even tighter COVID-19 restrictions and …
13th October 2020
Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to …
8th October 2020
One last surge in housing market activity Housing market activity rose for a fourth consecutive month in September, but the market may be approaching an inflection point. We expect house price growth and transactions to cool by the end of the year, as …
House price growth surges to four-year high House price growth surged to a four-year high according to the Halifax index. But there are tentative signs that the pent-up demand driving the latest mini-boom may be running out. We think house prices are …
7th October 2020
Construction growth edges up in September The construction PMI strengthened in September, driven by an improvement in both the commercial and residential sectors. Still, with fresh virus restrictions likely to hit commercial occupier demand further, …
6th October 2020
There are tentative signs that the housing market mini-boom is running out of steam. We think house price growth and transactions are probably close to their peak. As pent-up demand from lockdown is expended in the coming months, we expect house price …
2nd October 2020
House price growth surges again House prices are rising at their fastest rate in four years. But price gains are likely to slow as the pent-up demand driving the market now is expended. Looking ahead, we think a weak underlying economy and the end of the …
30th September 2020
Strong bounce in house purchase lending continues August’s lending data showed another sharp increase in house purchase approvals. But, while this buoyancy may last for a few more months, the current spike in demand is likely to be short-lived. With the …
29th September 2020
London’s housing recovery is lagging the rest of the UK. The post-lockdown rise in housing demand has been weaker than elsewhere, while the latest evidence points to no resurgence in house price growth. This trend may reflect the rise in working from …
25th September 2020
We don’t think the surge in high-LTV interest rates signals an incoming credit crunch. Rather, it probably reflects lenders prioritising demand from less risky borrowers. As the surge from pent-up demand wanes in the coming months, we expect high-LTV …
18th September 2020
The housing market has so far seen a V shaped recovery. House purchase mortgage approvals have already recovered to their pre-virus level, while house prices have reversed the dip recorded earlier in the year. But as pent-up demand is expended and the …
16th September 2020
Housing market maintains its upward momentum The housing market strengthened further in August. But as pent-up demand from lockdown dries up over the coming months, conditions will soon cool. We expect house price growth to stagnate next year, while we …
10th September 2020
Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities …
9th September 2020
House prices bounce back strongly House price growth in August exceeded expectations, surging to 5.2% y/y. But pent-up demand will soon be expended, while a weak economy, cautious lenders and the end of the stamp duty cut will weigh on prices. We think …
7th September 2020
The housing market recovery has exceeded all expectations and we have substantially upgraded our 2020 house price forecast. But as pent up demand runs out, a weak economy, tight credit conditions and the end of the stamp duty cut will hold back further …
4th September 2020
Residential recovery outpaces commercial While the recovery in both commercial and residential construction lost momentum in August, growth in housebuilding far outperformed commercial. This trend is likely to continue, reflecting the stronger outlook for …
August gain wipes out Covid losses Combined with July, August’s surge in house price growth has more than reversed the price falls seen immediately after lockdown. But with the market mainly being driven by short-term factors such as pent-up demand, the …
2nd September 2020
V-shaped recovery in house purchase lending July’s lending data show a v-shaped recovery in house purchase mortgage approvals. But with the economy still fragile and lenders still cautious about high LTV loans, lending is likely to fall back once the …
1st September 2020
Part of the eviction ban is due to end in September, and court ordered evictions are likely to surge as the backlog works through the system. Even so, evictions will remain small compared to the rental stock, meaning the impact on private rents is likely …
26th August 2020
Private housebuilding is constrained by the speed at which builders can sell homes at prevailing market prices, which planning changes will do little to change. As a result, the government’s proposed reforms may improve land supply and support SME …
20th August 2020
Further strong pick-up in activity in July The latest RICS survey confirms that housing market activity strengthened further in July. This reinforces other evidence that the recovery may be stronger than expected, but in our view this doesn’t yet signal …
13th August 2020
Despite a rather lacklustre economic recovery, the housing market is already turning the corner. Demand has bounced back, helped by a decline in mortgage interest rates. The stamp duty cut will provide further support to housing transactions over the next …
11th August 2020
House prices recover strongly in July According to the Halifax index, house prices rebounded in July. Along with the recent Nationwide data and stronger lending, this is further support for our view that a house price crash is now unlikely. But with …
7th August 2020
We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week. Even with a heroic supply response through …
6th August 2020
More encouraging signs for construction, but commercial expected to lag The rise in July’s construction PMI is an encouraging sign for activity. Looking ahead, we expect housing construction will lead the upturn in activity, while further falls in values …
House prices stage a comeback in July House prices bounced back in July, unwinding the fall seen in June. Along with the pickup in lending in June, this reinforces our view that a house price crash is now unlikely. Although, with the mortgage holiday and …
31st July 2020
Lending recovery off to a strong start House purchase mortgage approvals saw a strong initial recovery in June. Lending is likely to strengthen further this year, as the stamp duty cut supports demand and lenders bring back higher LTV loans. All this …
29th July 2020
Overview – Lockdown slammed the brakes on activity and house price growth, but policy interventions have cushioned the blow for housing. As a result, our initial fears of a house price collapse have waned. That said, we still expect house prices to fall …
23rd July 2020
Overview – The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy will probably continue to lag behind its …
20th July 2020
Credit crunch for mortgage lending Mortgage credit availability collapsed in Q2, while commercial loan conditions improved on the back of government loan guarantees. Looking ahead, lenders expect both commercial and residential property lending to fall, …
16th July 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
The housing market outlook is improving. Government support and lender forbearance have dulled the impact of the virus on housing. Indeed, housing demand has bounced back more strongly than expected. Meanwhile, falling interest rates will support housing …
The latest stamp duty cut will bring forward some housing demand and, by increasing perceptions that the government is standing behind the market, the cut reduces the chance of a house price crash. That said, with the potential tax savings unable to …
13th July 2020
Activity rebounds in June The latest RICS survey suggest activity is increasing at its fastest rate since 2013, though these results should still be read with caution as the UK moves out of lockdown. Nonetheless, market sentiment is clearly recovering …
9th July 2020
House prices broadly flat in June According to the Halifax index, house prices were broadly stable in June. Looking ahead, with the furlough scheme due to end soon and lenders increasingly risk averse, further house price falls are likely. But there are …
7th July 2020
Construction rebound outstrips expectations June’s PMI construction jumped back above 50 for the first time in four months, confirming that activity is starting to return to normal. The improvement was driven by both commercial and residential sectors and …
6th July 2020
The coronavirus extinguished a nascent surge in London house prices in Q1. Instead, housing demand in the capital collapsed during lockdown, and has been comparatively slow to return. That underperformance is likely to continue in the near-term, as virus …
1st July 2020
House prices fall sharply again in June House prices saw another steep fall in June, but low transactions volumes cast doubt on the accuracy of the figures. Looking ahead, there are signs of a recovery in demand, but lenders remain cautious. We think …
Surprise fall in mortgage approvals Despite the housing market reopening half-way through May, house purchase mortgage approvals once again fell sharply. But signs of a bounce back in buyer demand in June, combined with resilient mortgage availability …
29th June 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
The recent withdrawal of high LTV products could impede as many as one in four prospective first-time buyers. More broadly, tighter credit conditions reinforce our view that, despite signs of a surge in demand, lending and transactions won’t recover their …
26th June 2020
Transactions in April and May have surprised on the upside. What’s more, there are signs that new demand in June has been stronger than expected. Of course, the economic damage from lockdown suggests that sales won’t sustain their pre-virus level anytime …
25th June 2020
The rental market data have been surprisingly resilient. But informal rent cuts may be happening under the radar, while government support has delayed the crunch point for households. As a result, we have pushed back our expected fall in rents to the end …
18th June 2020
Surveyors point to modest fall in house prices May’s RICS survey points to a modest fall in house prices. But the rest of the survey is harder to interpret. It suggests that activity fell from April’s already very low level, despite lockdown restrictions …
11th June 2020
While the housing market has reopened, there are still limited data on the pace of improvement. Given the economic damage, uncertainty and weak pipeline of in-progress housing sales, we expect the recovery in activity to be gradual. Meanwhile, the main …
10th June 2020
High LTV lending edged down in Q1 High LTV lending was already edging down before the coronavirus hit, as competitive pressures among banks plateaued. But lenders have since withdrawn such loans en masse, owing to fears of a house price collapse. So we …
9th June 2020
House prices edge down as lockdown is eased According to the Halifax index, house prices fell for a third consecutive month in May as lockdown was eased. But the fall of 0.2% m/m was very gradual. That supports our view that house prices will see a modest …
5th June 2020
Gradual recovery in property construction May’s rise in the construction PMI suggests that April was probably the low point for activity. The improvement was driven both the commercial and residential sectors. Looking ahead, with lockdown gradually being …
4th June 2020
Lending hit record low during lockdown House purchase mortgage approvals fell by 71.8% m/m in April – broadly in line with our expectations. Looking ahead, with the housing market having reopened in May, that probably marks a low point. Still, given the …
2nd June 2020
