The housing market outlook is improving. Government support and lender forbearance have dulled the impact of the virus on housing. Indeed, housing demand has bounced back more strongly than expected. Meanwhile, falling interest rates will support housing valuations. And while many lenders have withdrawn high LTV loans, we think many risker products will be brought back soon. Of course, with many support measures due to end by Q4, some downside risks have been pushed out to 2021. But the big picture is that, while house prices will see a modest fall in 2020, the probability of a crash has fallen significantly.
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