Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Construction PMI slumps to record low April’s Construction PMI collapsed to a record low of just 8.2. That was driven by the commercial and residential sectors, which both saw record falls in activity. But looking ahead, with signs that housebuilders are …
6th May 2020
Shutdown and uncertainty hits lending Mortgage approvals for house purchase slumped by a hefty 24% in March. And with the coronavirus likely to have only cut lending in the second half of the month, we expect an even larger fall in April. House purchase …
1st May 2020
House prices are somehow still rising April’s rise in annual house price growth won’t last. We suspect it reflects both low transaction volumes and delays to processing mortgage applications. As the economic hit to employment from the pandemic continues, …
Mortgage lenders pull up the drawbridge Mortgage availability is set to collapse in Q2. Part of that will reflect limitations caused by physical distancing measures due to the coronavirus. Yet broader concerns about the economy, house prices and shrinking …
16th April 2020
Surveyors report a collapse in activity Coronavirus measures have put the housing market on ice. With buyer enquiries and agreed sales in freefall, the market is on track to see a 70% fall in sales this quarter. Meanwhile the collapse in sentiment among …
9th April 2020
House prices hold firm before the lockdown The Halifax index recorded flat house prices in March, but that tells us little about the effect of the coronavirus. And with very few housing transactions likely to go through across April and May, the house …
7th April 2020
Construction output grinding to a halt March’s Construction PMI fell to its lowest reading since 2009, with commercial construction seeing a particularly sharp fall. Housebuilding saw a more modest decline, but as revenues dry up over the next few months, …
6th April 2020
House prices surge before the coronavirus strikes House price growth accelerated in March, but that reflected sales agreed from before the coronavirus lockdown. Looking ahead, we now expect house prices to fall by around 3% this year. And with the …
2nd April 2020
Final rise in lending before the coronavirus hits February saw strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, but the coronavirus will prevent any further gains over the coming months. Indeed, given the stringent social distancing measures now in …
30th March 2020
Housebuilding slump deepens Housing starts fell sharply in the final quarter of 2019. With housebuilders now halting construction in response to the coronavirus, and the hit to buyer confidence to persist even after movement restrictions are lifted, we …
26th March 2020
Encouraging results expected to be a false dawn UK housing market activity rose again in February according to the RICS. But as the survey was conducted before the escalation of the coronavirus crisis and related financial market turmoil, we expect any …
12th March 2020
High LTV lending eases at the end of 2019 The latest mortgage statistics show an easing in the share of higher LTV loans at the end of 2019, though there was evidence that high LTI loans have risen slightly. Overall, our view remains that high house …
10th March 2020
House price pressures cool Annual house price growth on the Halifax index cooled in February, suggesting that the market has lost steam. Looking ahead, with the coronavirus likely to affect sentiment as well as economic activity in the coming months, the …
6th March 2020
Sharp rise in construction output The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed to the strongest rise in construction since December 2018. This was driven by improvements in both commercial property and housing. But with the economic outlook weak and …
3rd March 2020
Post-election lending surge in January House purchase mortgage approvals surged in January, and leading indicators point to further gains in the coming months. But with house prices high, economic growth set to stay weak and uncertainty to return later …
2nd March 2020
House prices gather momentum House prices gathered momentum in February, and leading indicators point to further near-term gains. But this latest boost reflects sentiment, while the fundamentals argue against a sustained acceleration. We expect house …
28th February 2020
Boris bounce extends into January Housing market activity rose again in January, driven by a post-election rise in sentiment. This bodes well for the near-term, but the upward momentum can’t be sustained indefinitely. Indeed, we expect any surge in …
13th February 2020
No signs of acceleration in January Annual house price growth was broadly flat in January according to the Halifax index, suggesting that the surge in prices around the election may be short lived. Indeed, with house prices still high relative to incomes, …
7th February 2020
Construction output falls at slower pace The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed towards a slower decline in construction in January 2020. Improved balances in commercial property, civil engineering and housing signalled a post-election bounce, but …
4th February 2020
House purchase lending recovers in December Improving sentiment pushed house purchase mortgage approvals to a 29-month high in December. But Boris Johnson’s election win has done nothing to improve the housing market fundamentals. With house prices very …
31st January 2020
Partial recovery in housing starts Housing starts rose in Q3, but construction is still down sharply on an annual basis. Looking ahead however, improving sentiment suggest that further falls in construction will be limited. There were 39,500 housing …
29th January 2020
Further signs of a Boris bounce January’s house price data show further evidence of a Boris bounce. But while faster price growth reflects improved sentiment, the election did nothing to lower house prices, boost incomes or loosen credit constraints. So, …
Mortgage approvals rise in December The UK Finance mortgage approvals data provides further tentative evidence that demand picked up at the end of 2019. But with Brexit-related uncertainty set to intensify later this year and with the housing fundamentals …
27th January 2020
Commercial and residential credit availability diverges Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals …
16th January 2020
Strong end to 2019 according to RICS Despite the RICS data pointing to a jump in active demand and supply in December, we doubt that will translate into a substantive increase in either transactions or house price growth this year. Indeed, with the …
Second jump in house prices The Halifax index recorded another jump in house prices in December. This could signal a Boris bounce, but with price gains on the other main indices much weaker, today’s data probably overstate the strength of the market. …
8th January 2020
House purchase lending edges up in November November saw a marginal rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, suggesting that pre-election uncertainty had little effect on housing market activity. Looking ahead, given high house prices, a lack of homes …
3rd January 2020
House prices rose by 1.4% in 2019 Annual house price growth accelerated in December, ending the year a little faster than expected. But that pick-up largely reflected base effects. Looking ahead, with house prices still very high and mortgage interest …
Gloomy month for housing demand November’s survey data support our view that the housing market will struggle to gain any upward momentum next year. After all, with house prices high and mortgage interest rates unable to fall much further, we expect …
12th December 2019
High LTV lending hits 11 year high Lower prices have encouraged borrowers to take out higher LTV loans. But lenders have maintained their credit scoring standards and maximum LTI ratios, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Combined with the …
10th December 2019
The Halifax index once again an outlier The sharp acceleration in house price growth recorded by the Halifax in November was an outlier, and is unlikely to be repeated in the coming months. Indeed, we expect house price growth to stay at or below 2% y/y …
6th December 2019
Construction falls for seventh consecutive month November’s headline construction PMI increased from last month, which pointed towards the slowest decline in construction output since July. Nevertheless, it continues to point to a deterioration. The …
3rd December 2019
Drop in mortgage approvals House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October. Looking ahead, even if uncertainty were to lift at the start of next year, the housing market fundamentals do not support a pick-up in activity. We think growth in …
29th November 2019
House price growth accelerates in November We wouldn’t read too much into November’s pick-up in house price growth. Indeed, the big picture is that, even if the economic and political uncertainty eases next year, house price growth will pick up only a …
28th November 2019
Mortgage approvals edge down in October Given the political and economic uncertainty, October’s drop in house purchase mortgage approvals came as little surprise. And even if uncertainty were to clear in the coming months, high house prices will keep …
26th November 2019
Housing market activity faltering Against the uncertain political backdrop and with the economy weakening, the RICS survey data point to a weak near-term outlook for the housing market. Indeed, with house prices already very high and set to stay that way, …
14th November 2019
Annual house price growth slips below 1% Slowing house price growth on the Halifax index brought it closer to the other main price measures. With house prices high compared to incomes and interest rates close to their floor, we don’t expect a pick-up in …
7th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
Lending struggles to grow in September Mortgage approvals for house purchase and remortgaging rose in September, but annual growth in both were still weak. Looking ahead, the outlook is subdued. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, house purchase …
29th October 2019
House prices continue to stagnate House prices saw subdued growth in October. And while in wage-adjusted terms, prices are on a gradual downward trajectory, any meaningful downward adjustment will take time. Looking ahead, we expect house price inflation …
Mortgage lending weakens Mortgage approvals among the high street banks slipped in September. And while annual growth on the UK Finance measure has stayed strong, that reflects a shift in market share towards the main high street banks. The big picture is …
24th October 2019
Lenders continue to tighten credit A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. According the Bank of England’s Credit …
17th October 2019
Housing market activity slumps in September According to the RICS survey, buyer and seller numbers fell sharply in September, as renewed uncertainty hit housing market confidence. But the big picture is that, even if Brexit uncertainty were to be resolved …
10th October 2019
Subdued house price growth here to stay September’s fall in the Halifax house price index chimes with the message from the alternative measures and suggests that house price inflation is subdued. Indeed, with house prices already high and interest rates …
7th October 2019
Housing starts fall again Housing starts fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2, pushing the pace of construction down to its lowest level in three years. Looking ahead, with Help-to-Buy set to be pared back and wider housing market activity set to …
3rd October 2019
Construction output set to drop in Q3 The fall in the headline construction PMI in September suggests that construction output contracted in Q3. For the commercial property sector, the softer supply pipeline may limit rental values falls. Meanwhile, we …
2nd October 2019
House price growth subdued The subdued picture for house price growth is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Even if a no deal Brexit disruption is avoided, we think high house prices, mortgage regulation and rising interest rates will keep house price …
1st October 2019
Approvals down despite strong price competition Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in August, more than reversing the gains seen in June and July. Looking ahead, despite evidence of strong price competition among mortgage lenders, we think a …
30th September 2019
House purchase mortgage approvals set to stay subdued August’s fall in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed July’s rise. And while price competition among mortgage lenders remains fierce, this has largely not translated into higher lending …
25th September 2019
Housing demand stagnates once more Having seen a small improvement across June and July, housing demand lost all upward momentum in August. Looking ahead, given the high level of house prices and ongoing political uncertainty, a recovery in house price …
12th September 2019