Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Recovery in construction waning The fall in the headline construction PMI to its lowest level since May shows that the recovery in activity was waning even before the second lockdown began. Admittedly, construction sites will remain open this time around. …
5th November 2020
Outlook for offices and retail remains poor, while industrial shines Despite surveyors reporting a rise in industrial occupier demand in Q3, conditions for the retail and office sectors were still poor. In turn, expectations for all-property rental and …
29th October 2020
Rise in net lending to be short lived Having revised up figures for August, net lending rose for the second consecutive month in September. We think this can be explained by a pick-up in investment activity, but we think a deterioration in the economic …
Banks maintain property lending caution Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to …
15th October 2020
Construction growth edges up in September The construction PMI strengthened in September, driven by an improvement in both the commercial and residential sectors. Still, with fresh virus restrictions likely to hit commercial occupier demand further, …
6th October 2020
Net lending likely to turn negative again Having fallen sharply in July, net lending to property was practically flat in August. As the recovery in transaction activity show signs of slowing and banks are less willing to grant further payment holidays, we …
29th September 2020
Deterioration in the outlook for next year The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised down over the forecast horizon, with notable downgrades to next year’s outlook. Our views are broadly in line with the IPF in terms of sector rankings, but we take …
4th September 2020
Residential recovery outpaces commercial While the recovery in both commercial and residential construction lost momentum in August, growth in housebuilding far outperformed commercial. This trend is likely to continue, reflecting the stronger outlook for …
Negative net lending expected to continue in coming months In line with our expectations, net lending to property saw a marked decline in July as transactions remained low and banks tightened their belts. We expect banks’ willingness to grant further …
1st September 2020
More encouraging signs for construction, but commercial expected to lag The rise in July’s construction PMI is an encouraging sign for activity. Looking ahead, we expect housing construction will lead the upturn in activity, while further falls in values …
6th August 2020
The outlook for property deteriorates further The RICS survey confirmed demand for property declined again in Q2 and the outlook for rents and capital values worsened across all sectors. While surveyors were most pessimistic about retail and offices, …
30th July 2020
Slowing net lending likely to turn negative in H2 As expected, net lending to property eased in June from the sharp rise in May. As the recovery in transaction activity is likely to be slow, we expect demand for new lending to be weak for the rest of the …
29th July 2020
Credit crunch for mortgage lending Mortgage credit availability collapsed in Q2, while commercial loan conditions improved on the back of government loan guarantees. Looking ahead, lenders expect both commercial and residential property lending to fall, …
16th July 2020
Construction rebound outstrips expectations June’s PMI construction jumped back above 50 for the first time in four months, confirming that activity is starting to return to normal. The improvement was driven by both commercial and residential sectors and …
6th July 2020
Lending likely to turn negative in the coming months The notable rise in net lending in May was probably due to lenders allowing for payment holidays rather than an increase in new loans to investors. But, these measures can only continue in the …
29th June 2020
Gradual recovery in property construction May’s rise in the construction PMI suggests that April was probably the low point for activity. The improvement was driven both the commercial and residential sectors. Looking ahead, with lockdown gradually being …
4th June 2020
Net lending expected to decline in the near term As expected, net lending turned negative in April following a sharp rise in March. Given that transaction activity will see a fall in the second quarter of this year, we think that net lending to property …
2nd June 2020
Returns outlook deteriorates The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised down sharply, given the downbeat outlook for the economy and its implications for property. While our views on offices and industrial appear to be broadly in line with the …
29th May 2020
Construction PMI slumps to record low April’s Construction PMI collapsed to a record low of just 8.2. That was driven by the commercial and residential sectors, which both saw record falls in activity. But looking ahead, with signs that housebuilders are …
6th May 2020
Net lending rockets but expected to fall back in coming months The sharp rise in net lending figures in March was probably due to banks permitting payment holidays rather than a significant boost in new loans to investors. Given that these are likely to …
1st May 2020
Conditions expected to deteriorate further The Q1 RICS survey confirms fears for the outlook for property. Yet, while a sharp decline in both occupier and investment market conditions was reported, there was a marked deterioration in responses received …
30th April 2020
Modest decline, but more to come While the decline in workload reported was modest, there was a marked worsening in responses received towards the end of the survey period. Indeed, with profit margins set to fall and lending likely to be tight, the …
23rd April 2020
Mortgage lenders pull up the drawbridge Mortgage availability is set to collapse in Q2. Part of that will reflect limitations caused by physical distancing measures due to the coronavirus. Yet broader concerns about the economy, house prices and shrinking …
16th April 2020
Construction output grinding to a halt March’s Construction PMI fell to its lowest reading since 2009, with commercial construction seeing a particularly sharp fall. Housebuilding saw a more modest decline, but as revenues dry up over the next few months, …
6th April 2020
Net lending expected to weaken The improvement in net lending figures in February is unlikely to be sustained. Given that transactions are likely to grind to a halt as containment measures restrict most trading and that we expect capital values to fall by …
30th March 2020
Sharp rise in construction output The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed to the strongest rise in construction since December 2018. This was driven by improvements in both commercial property and housing. But with the economic outlook weak and …
3rd March 2020
Net lending remains unspectacular As expected, net property lending at the start of this year was relatively weak. The notable slowdown in lending to standing investment weighed on overall net lending to commercial property. We think a fall in capital …
2nd March 2020
Total returns outlook strengthens in the near term February’s IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised higher, given the increased certainty surrounding Brexit. As such, the consensus expects stronger returns for this year, but this was offset by slightly …
28th February 2020
Construction output falls at slower pace The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed towards a slower decline in construction in January 2020. Improved balances in commercial property, civil engineering and housing signalled a post-election bounce, but …
4th February 2020
Net lending to property falls for first time since January 2019 A large fall in development lending weighed on net lending in December. We expect net lending will remain weak this year as all-property capital values continue to decline and uncertainty …
31st January 2020
No sign of the retail downturn easing The RICS survey showed that occupier demand and investment enquiries remained negative in 2019 Q4, though there was a slight improvement on Q3, outside of retail at least. The outlook for both rents and capital values …
30th January 2020
Improved optimism, but development expected to remain weak Despite an improvement in sentiment in 2019 Q4, with commercial property values predicted to fall this year and lending conditions tight, a strong rebound in construction activity is unlikely. The …
23rd January 2020
Commercial and residential credit availability diverges Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals …
16th January 2020
Slowing net lending to property expected to continue As expected, net lending to property was relatively weak in November in the run up to UK election. Despite a decisive result in the poll, we don’t think there will be much of an improvement in the …
3rd January 2020
Construction ends 2019 on a weak note The headline construction PMI numbers ended 2019 with a whimper, as November’s improvement was reversed. The survey pointed to falling output for most of last year and, despite a post-election easing of uncertainty, …
Construction falls for seventh consecutive month November’s headline construction PMI increased from last month, which pointed towards the slowest decline in construction output since July. Nevertheless, it continues to point to a deterioration. The …
3rd December 2019
Total returns outlook for next year weakens The November’s IPF Consensus survey highlighted a weakening in the property outlook in the next year, though compensated by some improvement in 2021. Despite this, we think they are still too upbeat about …
29th November 2019
Net lending expected to slow Net lending to property was relatively weak in October. And we don’t expect much of an improvement over the coming months as all-property capital values continue to decline and interest rates look likely to increase. Net …
Concern over prolonged Brexit uncertainty The deterioration in workload expectations is consistent with the fact that, with Brexit uncertainty prolonged and commercial property values expected to fall, a strong increase in the construction activity is …
7th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
Activity weighed down by uncertainty and retail weakness The RICS survey adds to the picture that weakness in the retail sector and Brexit-related uncertainty will continue to weigh on all-property rental values over coming quarters. The RICS Commercial …
31st October 2019
Upward trend in net lending not likely to continue We don’t expect the recent strength of net lending to property to be sustained as demand for credit is likely to be held back by falling all-property capital values and higher lending costs. Following an …
29th October 2019
Lenders continue to tighten credit A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. According the Bank of England’s Credit …
17th October 2019
Construction output set to drop in Q3 The fall in the headline construction PMI in September suggests that construction output contracted in Q3. For the commercial property sector, the softer supply pipeline may limit rental values falls. Meanwhile, we …
2nd October 2019
The rise in net lending unlikely to last August’s solid rise in net lending is unlikely to be sustained. Indeed, with capital values set to decline further in the months ahead, we expect that demand for credit will fall from its current levels this year. …
30th September 2019
Brexit heightens uncertainty, but retail remains the main drag The IPF Consensus forecast downgraded its forecasts for all-property total returns this year to 0.9% p.a.. Although the outcome of Brexit is likely to be an important driver of commercial …
6th September 2019
Construction continues to contract The decline in the headline construction PMI in August provides further evidence that construction activity has failed to recover so far in Q3. With firms cautious about the outlook, commercial property construction …
3rd September 2019
Net lending falls for first time in five months The decline in net lending in July is consistent with our view that net lending will be subdued over the rest of the year, as Brexit-related uncertainty and falling capital values weigh on credit demand. …
30th August 2019
Net lending to slow over rest of 2019 The rise in net lending to real estate during June was unexpectedly strong. But with uncertainty high and capital values expected to fall further, we don’t expect the recent vigour to be maintained over the rest of …
29th July 2019
Occupier conditions decline for fifth consecutive quarter Weakness in the retail sector is expected to weigh on all-property rental values this year. However, surveyors do not expect the commercial property sector to experience a hard landing. The RICS …
25th July 2019