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The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a new tax regime in India weigh on consumption. … China and …
24th August 2017
Whilst fundamentals have played a role in the most recent rallies in industrial metals, we think that speculative activity has exacerbated the move up in prices. In some cases – notably copper – futures positioning looks particularly stretched and we …
The ongoing surge in ShFE tin stocks was the main story in the last month. In fact, inventories of most ShFE metals have risen in the last four weeks, while stocks of nearly all the LME metals have fallen. … No shortage of tin …
23rd August 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by just 1% y/y last month, down from 7.1% y/y a month earlier. … Global Aluminium Production …
21st August 2017
The price of iron ore has staged an impressive rally since late June, fuelled by a combination of strong growth in China’s steel output and speculative activity. However, with steel demand and production set to fade and ongoing increases in iron ore …
15th August 2017
China’s July activity and investment data showed a marked downturn and reversed most of the gains recorded towards the end of the second quarter. We had always expected policy tightening to translate into slower growth in the second half, but we think …
14th August 2017
The price of gold was a key beneficiary of the recent increase in tensions between the US and North Korea. While we think that the chances of a full-scale war are quite slim, there remains huge uncertainty as to how the current geopolitical crisis will …
11th August 2017
After falling at the start of the year, robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher in recent months. The strength in prices is likely to persist over the next couple of months as concentrate availability is reduced by …
10th August 2017
PGM output slumped in June as miners struggled with rising costs and falling metal content. We expect output to drop further in the second half of the year. … South Africa’s Mine Production …
Global gold demand fell to the lowest level since 2009 in the first half of 2017. Higher prices, fading geopolitical risks and soft jewellery fabrication were the main factors behind the weakness in consumption. We expect appetite for gold to remain …
3rd August 2017
A weaker US dollar and stronger Chinese economic data boosted metals prices last month. Aluminium was the only exception. (See Chart.) In most cases, industrial metals prices are now more aligned with fundamentals. But, slower growth in China in the …
2nd August 2017
Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets. That said, higher prices have been incentivising …
27th July 2017
The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new tax regime in India weigh on consumption. … China and …
China’s detailed trade data, released yesterday, revealed that metals demand was strong in the first six months of the year, which helps to explain the recent price rallies. That said, we expect policy tightening to lead to somewhat slower growth in the …
25th July 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. … Global Steel Production …
20th July 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. … Global Aluminium Production …
There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy tightening to lead to somewhat lower activity in the second …
18th July 2017
Despite relatively strong demand from industrial applications and dwindling mine supply, the price of silver has recently fallen to the lowest level since April 2016. In this Metals Watch, we look at the most recent developments in the silver market and …
14th July 2017
PGM output continued to fall in May as years of underinvestment have started to take their toll on production. The release of the new Mining Charter, if unchanged, is only likely to worsen what is already a pretty bleak outlook for South Africa’s PGM …
13th July 2017
With the fading prospect of mine closures in the Philippines, the outlook for nickel supply is improving. At the same time, demand is expected to weaken this year. However, we think that the deterioration in fundamentals is now largely factored into …
12th July 2017
New supply prospects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could ease the current tightness in the cobalt market. Admittedly, the country’s mine practices are controversial and there is a risk that government intervention and geopolitical tensions …
6th July 2017
The prices of most industrial metals rose last month, supported by some weakness in the US dollar and more encouraging data out of China. Although activity there slowed in the second quarter, there were at least signs of stabilisation in June. In …
4th July 2017
South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going forward. … How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM …
3rd July 2017
After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second quarter. … China Industrial Metals Output Monitor …
28th June 2017
The latest trade data show gold imports moved in opposing directions in the two largest consumers last month. The fall in China’s gold imports suggests weaker underlying demand, while India’s imports continued to surge ahead of the implementation of the …
26th June 2017
The price of copper has been trading in a fairly narrow range in the last few weeks, but is still significantly higher than at the start of 2016. In this Metals Watch, we discuss the main drivers of the price of copper, with a particular focus on the …
Increased speculative activity appears to have been the main driver of the recent surge in the price of palladium, which reached a sixteen-year high of $910 per ounce on 9th June. However, fundamentals suggest that prices will fall back in the coming …
21st June 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.7% y/y rise in global steel production in May, down from 5.0% in April. Nonetheless, this still compares very favourably with the 0.8% increase in steel output in 2016. … Global Steel Production …
20th June 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 4.8% y/y last month, down from 6.4% y/y a month earlier. However, unlike in April when the growth was all in China, output picked up in all regions in May. … …
Exchange stocks generally fell over the last month. The bigger picture is that there have been sharp drawdowns in global exchange stocks of aluminium and zinc and a large build in copper inventories so far this year. Total stocks of nickel and tin are …
19th June 2017
The price of gold was largely unaffected by the Fed’s decision to raise its policy rate target by 25bp, to between 1.00% and 1.25%, yesterday. While many have attributed the resilience in the gold price to strong safe-haven demand, there is little …
15th June 2017
China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. … China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor …
India is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold and relies solely on imports to meet domestic gold demand. This has, at times, resulted in a deepening of the country’s current account deficit, pressuring policymakers to find a way to reduce the …
14th June 2017
The likelihood that China will start exporting refined tin in much larger quantities should ease the relatively tight supply picture outside China. As such, we have revised down our end-2017 price forecast. … Tightness in tin likely to …
13th June 2017
PGM output had a strong start to the year but the latest figures suggest that it has already started to wane. We expect production to fall in the remainder of the year as the platinum price treads water and mining firms close loss-making operations. … …
8th June 2017
The prices of precious metals benefitted from a weaker US dollar and heightened safe-haven demand in May. In addition, markets are pricing in only a limited Fed tightening over the next eighteen months. In contrast, the prices of most industrial metals …
6th June 2017
Despite the recent rally in prices, we remain bearish on the long-term prospects for lead usage. While increased demand for start-stop systems in cars could provide some support to prices over the coming years, we doubt it will be enough to offset lower …
1st June 2017
Chinese steel prices have been on a roller-coaster since the start of this year, as investor sentiment on the outlook for demand waxed and waned. In this Metals Watch, we take an in-depth look at the prospects for supply and demand in the Chinese steel …
30th May 2017
The latest trade data show a jump in gold imports in the two largest consumers last month. India’s imports soared ahead of the forthcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST), while the strength of China’s imports could reflect expectations of buoyant demand. … …
25th May 2017
Sentiment towards metals has deteriorated somewhat since the start of 2017. We had warned that this could happen as the large investor inflows into metals markets last year were mostly premised on optimism about demand, whilst China’s economic slowdown …
24th May 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5% y/y rise in global steel production in April, down from 5.7% in the first quarter. Nonetheless, output was growing strongly in all the large producing countries, with the exception of Ukraine. … Global Steel …
23rd May 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 6.4% y/y last month, up from 4.3% y/y in March. However, in month-on-month terms, production fell in all reporting regions apart from China. … Global …
22nd May 2017
Stocks generally rose over the last month, which we think is consistent with broader macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in China’s activity in April and the recent weakness in most metals prices. … Higher stocks reflect the slowdown in China’s …
19th May 2017
China’s activity and investment data for April showed clear signs of a slowdown. Given steadily tightening monetary conditions and less fiscal stimulus, we expect activity to slow further which will weigh on metals demand and prices. … China Industrial …
18th May 2017
Given our outlook for US monetary policy this year and next, we expect the weakness in the price of platinum to persist through most of 2017-18. However, further ahead, we think that platinum will regain its lustre. … Platinum: Short-term pain, Long-term …
15th May 2017
South Africa’s PGM output grew strongly in Q1 but, going forward, we expect reduced investment over the past few years to start denting supply. … South Africa’s Mine Production …
11th May 2017
The resilience in the price of gold this year has come as a surprise given the prospect of further monetary tightening in the US. Safe-haven demand appears to have been the main driver of prices. But, there are already signs that this support is fading. …
8th May 2017
Global gold demand fell by 18% y/y in Q1 2017, but this was from a high base a year earlier. In comparison to Q4 2016, demand was stronger as geopolitical concerns prompted investor buying. Subdued demand elsewhere, and the prospect for the Fed hiking …
5th May 2017
The prices of both industrial and precious metals suffered last month from waning investor optimism about the outlook for demand. Indeed, concerns appeared justified as China’s manufacturing PMI dropped sharply in April and it became clear that the US …
3rd May 2017
China’s trade data for March depict a relatively weak picture for metals demand. While in some cases imports picked up in the first quarter, we think that optimism about demand rather than strong underlying usage has been the main driver of the recovery. …
25th April 2017