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The latest output data for November point to a tighter aluminium market. We had always expected this to happen as the planned closures in China began last month. However, growth in demand has also slowed. As such, we expect prices to edge lower over the …
20th December 2017
Total exchange stocks of most metals fell in 2017 on a combination of constrained supply and solid growth in China’s demand in the first half of the year. We expect stocks to build over the course of 2018 as supply bottlenecks ease and growth in China’s …
18th December 2017
China’s latest activity and investment data point to more subdued metals demand than earlier in the year. Despite curbs on supply, we still think prices are reflecting undue optimism about demand. … China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor …
14th December 2017
Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.6% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the third time this year and the fifth time in this tightening cycle. The lack of revisions to the Fed’s inflation and interest rate …
While a flattening US yield curve has, at times, been associated with a rising gold price, the relationship is far from perfect. Indeed, although we expect the curve to continue to flatten over the next year, we think that the price of gold is more likely …
12th December 2017
The prices of most metals fell in November, reflecting concerns about somewhat softer economic data out of China. The outlier was the ferrous sector, where prices surged on the prospect of Chinese production cuts during the winter. Meanwhile, in recent …
5th December 2017
There has been much chatter about an imminent tightening in the copper market, partly as a result of a shortfall in supply but also because of strong demand growth associated with the green economy. In this Metals Watch , we assess the current state of …
India has experienced a period of uninterrupted growth in steel production for more than a decade, unmatched by any other major producer. But the country faces challenges in creating a competitive steel industry and is unlikely to emerge as the growth …
1st December 2017
Sentiment towards metals has diverged since the start of 2017. While investors have remained firmly bullish on precious metals, they have turned more bearish on industrial metals even as prices have continued to rise. Although, in some cases, this year’s …
28th November 2017
The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports remained weak in October. We had always thought that demand in India would soften in the second half of the year as a result of the new tax regime. In China, demand usually picks up ahead of …
27th November 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.9% y/y increase in global steel production in October and a 5.3% rise in January-October, driven by growth in most of the largest steel-producing countries. … Global Steel Production …
22nd November 2017
The latest output data for October, released today, point to a tighter aluminium market. Whilst the planned closures in China could provide some support to prices over the coming months, growth in demand has also slowed. As such, we expect prices to edge …
20th November 2017
Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals have fallen since the start of the year, which goes some way to justifying the rally in prices. The exceptions are tin and copper inventories. However, while the tin price has drifted lower of late, the …
Government-mandated steel production cuts in China this winter will exacerbate the decrease in demand for iron ore resulting from a weak construction sector and a slowdown in economic growth. As such, we feel that prices have further to fall. … Iron ore …
17th November 2017
China’s October activity and investment data underpin our view that the economy started to slow in the second half of this year and point to softer growth in metals demand. … China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor …
16th November 2017
After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on prices at least in the near term. This is one factor behind …
10th November 2017
Global gold demand fell in Q3 to the lowest level in 8 years, continuing the downward trend so far in 2017. Weak jewellery demand and stalling ETF inflows were the main factors behind the decline. With physical demand likely to remain relatively subdued …
9th November 2017
The medium-term outlook for nickel demand has improved given that electric vehicles are likely to have a high nickel content. But, for now, the market is more than comfortably supplied. … Too soon to get excited about …
6th November 2017
Elevated geopolitical risks and dovish market expectations for Fed tightening have supported the price of gold this year. While we have revised up our end-2017 and end-2018 forecasts, we still expect prices to edge lower over the coming year. … Gold price …
3rd November 2017
The prices of most metals rose in October, despite some appreciation of the US dollar and somewhat softer economic data out of China. Optimism about future demand, notably associated with the electric vehicle sector, and the prospect of capacity cuts in …
2nd November 2017
Since the start of 2016, zinc has doubled in price. A combination of mine closures (owing to depletion), production cuts and solid demand have been the key drivers of the rally. But speculative activity has also played a role. In this Metals Watch we look …
31st October 2017
The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained subdued in September. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the new tax system but the government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the …
26th October 2017
There was no clear trend in China’s September metals import data. Indeed, in many cases, we think incoming shipments appeared at odds with the underlying trends in domestic demand and supply. High prices could be deterring buying, but it may also be a …
24th October 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5.3% y/y increase in global steel production in January-September, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was down by 2.3% from August’s high. … Global Steel …
23rd October 2017
China’s September activity and investment data and Q3 GDP suggest that the economy is holding up well. However, both point to weakness in the construction sector, which will weigh on demand for metals. Nonetheless, growth in other metals-intensive sectors …
The latest aluminium output data for September, released today, point to a tighter market. However, ShFE stocks have continued to rise indicating that the market is amply supplied for now. We expect the price of aluminium to edge lower over the coming …
20th October 2017
Total exchange stocks of nearly all the metals edged lower over the last month, which will have been a factor supporting prices. That said, the recent stock drawdowns have been relatively small. What’s more, the price of copper has surged, despite the …
17th October 2017
The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is unlikely to be as strong as in previous years since …
10th October 2017
The jump in alumina prices is probably premised largely on the prospect of winter capacity closures in China. But given that aluminium production could also fall, the market may not be as tight as it seems. … Does the rally in alumina prices have …
9th October 2017
Vehicles are a growing source of demand for metals, including platinum group metals (PGMs), zinc, aluminium, steel, nickel and copper. In this Metals Watch we look at the latest trends in global auto sales and see what they can tell us about the strength …
6th October 2017
The prices of most metals fell in September as a rising US dollar and upward revisions to expectations of US interest rate hikes weighed on investor sentiment. Signs of somewhat softer economic activity in China also raised concerns in the more industrial …
5th October 2017
Palladium was in the spotlight yesterday as its price traded at a premium to platinum for the first time in sixteen years. However, unlike platinum, investors’ net-long position in palladium looks stretched and there is a risk that prices might fall …
29th September 2017
The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained soft in August. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the implementation of the Goods & Services Tax (GST). In China, we expect imports to pick up …
26th September 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.9% y/y increase in global steel production in January-August, with output rising in all the major producers except Japan. That said, global output was down slightly on a month-on-month basis. … Global Steel …
21st September 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output declined by 1.3% y/y last month. This compares with a 1% y/y increase a month earlier. Nonetheless, production is still up by 5.2% y/y year-to-date, suggesting that …
20th September 2017
China increased its output of most refined metals in the first eight months of the year. The main exceptions were zinc and nickel. … China Metal Output …
There has been a dramatic drawdown of Shanghai lead inventories in the last month and a surge in LME copper stocks in the last week. Otherwise, total stock movements have been relatively subdued, with small rises for aluminium, tin and zinc, while copper …
18th September 2017
Sentiment towards metals remained broadly positive in Q3 as the prospect of capacity cuts in China later in the year supported industrial metals prices whilst heightened geopolitical risks buoyed demand for safe havens – notably gold. That said, we think …
15th September 2017
China’s August activity and spending data suggest that the slowdown that started in July continued into August. In particular, a downturn in infrastructure spending does not bode well for metals demand. We expect the economy to continue to cool in coming …
14th September 2017
We believe that increased speculative activity was the main driver of the recent rally in the price of palladium, which hit a 16-year high on Monday. While it is difficult to know when, if ever, investor sentiment will turn, we think that palladium looks …
8th September 2017
The weak July data for South Africa’s PGM mine output add to evidence that the market is tightening. We expect output to remain soft in the remainder of the year. … South Africa’s Mine Production …
7th September 2017
A combination of investor optimism about future demand, the depreciation of the dollar and disruptions to mine supply have been the key drivers of this year’s rally in the price of copper. But, in our view, growth in demand is slowing and a supply crunch …
5th September 2017
The prices of most metals rose in the last month. (See Chart.) Robust Chinese economic data boosted investor sentiment towards industrial metals. However, in many cases, we fear that underlying demand might not actually be that strong, making prices …
4th September 2017
Elevated geopolitical risks and expectations that the Fed will only raise interest rates slightly this year and next have buoyed the price of gold. While we have revised up our end-2017 forecast to reflect heightened global risks, we are wary of being …
31st August 2017
Electronics and the electrical sector used to account for around half of total tin usage. But tin is finding new sources of demand in the green economy and in the transport and chemical sectors. In this Metals Watch, we delve more deeply into the demand …
30th August 2017
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.6% y/y rise in global steel production in January-July, with output rising in all major producers bar Japan. … Global Steel Production …
24th August 2017
The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a new tax regime in India weigh on consumption. … China and …
Whilst fundamentals have played a role in the most recent rallies in industrial metals, we think that speculative activity has exacerbated the move up in prices. In some cases – notably copper – futures positioning looks particularly stretched and we …
The ongoing surge in ShFE tin stocks was the main story in the last month. In fact, inventories of most ShFE metals have risen in the last four weeks, while stocks of nearly all the LME metals have fallen. … No shortage of tin …
23rd August 2017
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by just 1% y/y last month, down from 7.1% y/y a month earlier. … Global Aluminium Production …
21st August 2017
