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Despite the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US, the price of gold has proved particularly resilient so far this year. We think that strong safe-haven demand on the back of heightened geopolitical risk has been a key factor sustaining prices. In …
30th April 2018
China’s industrial activity held up well in the first quarter of 2018, but year-on-year growth in some of the more metal-intensive sectors slowed from the previous quarter. Moreover, we expect the drags from slower credit creation and tighter fiscal …
26th April 2018
The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen as consumers in China and India tend to be very …
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.0% y/y increase in global steel production in March, driven by higher output in China, India and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming months, which underpins our bearish view on prices this …
25th April 2018
The US Treasury’s decision to soften its position on sanctions against Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, has sent the price of aluminium tumbling in the past couple of days. We think that prices will fall further as slower growth in China feeds through …
Growth in tin demand is expected to slow this year, but remain slightly stronger than the historical trend. However, constrained supply should support prices, which we expect to be relatively flat from here. … Tin to tread …
23rd April 2018
Global aluminium output continued to grow in March. We expect growth in output to pick up pace over the coming months as higher prices and the effects of the US sanctions on Russia prompt producers elsewhere to ramp up capacity utilisation. This is a key …
20th April 2018
Total exchange stocks of most industrial metals have fallen over the past month, but cancelled warrants have in most cases also declined which points to lacklustre demand. We expect inventories to build over the course of 2018 as supply bottlenecks ease …
18th April 2018
The US sanctions against Russia have supported the prices of platinum and palladium this week. However, Russian output is unlikely to be affected. This, coupled with weakening demand fundamentals, suggests that the recent gains in prices won’t be …
13th April 2018
The sanctions on Russian producer, Rusal, are likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. However, Russian output is unlikely to collapse. What’s more, higher prices will encourage production elsewhere, notably in China, which will eventually …
12th April 2018
Trade protectionism has escalated dramatically since the start of the year and threatens to turn into a full-blown trade war. In this Metals Watch , we look at the most recent developments on trade and assess the likely impact on metals demand and prices. …
10th April 2018
Fears of a trade war between China and the US and heightened geopolitical tensions weighed on most metals prices last month as investors rotated out of risky assets and into safe havens. In contrast, the prices of US steel and gold were beneficiaries of …
4th April 2018
The price of copper has already fallen back sharply but we think this is more about heightened geopolitical risk than fundamentals. The price may revive in the near term if risks start to fade, but ultimately we think slower growth in demand this year …
3rd April 2018
The price of gold has benefited from heightened geopolitical risk in recent weeks. While prices are likely to remain well supported in the short term as global trade worries see investors rotate out of risky assets, we still think that higher US interest …
28th March 2018
The latest trade data for India and China showed divergent trends in the two largest consumers. On the one hand, China’s gold imports remained robust although underlying demand appears to have weakened. On the other hand, India’s imports have continued to …
27th March 2018
Although China’s imports of most metals rose strongly in the first two months of 2018, other indicators imply weaker domestic demand, which could lead to lower volumes in the coming months. … China’s imports start the year on a strong …
26th March 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.5% y/y increase in global steel production in February led by higher output in China, India and Brazil. US production also edged higher and we expect it to continue to rise as a result of the recent hike in …
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s decision to hike royalties on cobalt mining represents a threat to the electric vehicle industry and could accelerate the ongoing substitution with cheaper metals. That said, in the short term cobalt will remain a …
23rd March 2018
Robust demand and constrained supply have pushed the price of zinc higher over the past year. But fundamentals have deteriorated sharply in recent months and point to substantially lower prices ahead. … Zinc’s rally looks …
22nd March 2018
Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.4% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the sixth time in this tightening cycle. However, we think that the recent rally will not last as the Fed will tighten rates more …
The solar industry has been the fastest growing source of demand for silver in recent years. While we expect photovoltaic capacity to continue to increase at a fast pace over the next decade, we think thrifting and substitution will dent silver demand …
15th March 2018
There have been some big jumps in stocks of copper, aluminium and zinc since the start of 2018, but inventories of the other base metals have fallen slightly. Given that we expect demand to soften this year as China’s economy slows, stocks of most metals …
14th March 2018
President Trump’s tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium are likely to be a bigger deal for the price of US steel than aluminium. But US steel prices have already surged, which coupled with higher-priced imports, seems likely to depress demand. As …
9th March 2018
Dwindling mine supply and, more recently, strong winter demand for car replacement batteries have given a boost to the price of lead. However, demand is weakening which, coupled with increasing secondary output, should ensure that prices fall back over …
8th March 2018
The prices of metals diverged last month. The prospect of a blanket tariff on US imports led to a jump in the price of US steel. At the same time, concerns about demand, notably from China, weighed on the prices of some of the other industrial metals, …
7th March 2018
Strong growth in China’s stainless steel output and supply disruptions have buoyed nickel prices so far this year. In this Metals Watch , we take a look at the most recent developments in both demand and supply and assess the outlook for prices in 2018. … …
6th March 2018
The latest trade data for India and China were a mixed bag. On the one hand, China’s gold imports bounced back, pointing to strong demand ahead of the New Year holiday. On the other hand, India’s imports softened and local prices suggest that this trend …
27th February 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 0.8% y/y increase in global steel production in January led by higher output in the EU, India and Turkey. US production remained weak, which is one reason why we remain more positive on the price of US steel …
26th February 2018
Global aluminium output continued to grow strongly in January, led by increases in China and other Asian countries. With no apparent shortage of supply, we expect prices to ease back in 2018. … Global Aluminium Production …
Stocks of copper and aluminium have risen strongly since the start of 2018, but inventories of the other base metals have fallen. Supply was tight in the smaller markets last year, but it is now showing signs of a rebound at a time of softening demand. As …
23rd February 2018
There are early signs that investor sentiment in the metals markets is deteriorating, although more so for industrial metals than precious. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have recently turned bearish and, in some cases, stocks are …
22nd February 2018
The price of US steel has already benefited from the prospect of heightened protectionism in the US. Indeed, prices could actually fall back if President Trump decides to moderate his actions to reduce the risk of retaliation on US exports of other …
19th February 2018
The price of iron ore has been remarkably stable recently despite a slump in Chinese steel prices. In this Metals Watch , we make the case that the market is factoring in too much optimism about demand at a time of rising supply. As such, we expect prices …
16th February 2018
We are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for gold and silver prices to reflect the fact that we no longer expect the US dollar to strengthen this year. Nonetheless, we are not inclined to do a U-turn and suddenly become bullish on prices. Indeed, we …
15th February 2018
We expect the platinum market to be broadly in balance this year, after a sizeable surplus in 2017. However, the recent price increase means that this is already largely factored into prices. As such, we expect platinum to end the year at around current …
9th February 2018
Global gold demand fell to its lowest level in eight years in 2017. Weak investment demand accounted for most of the decline. With demand from India and China likely to remain subdued and Fed tightening discouraging investment, we think that global …
6th February 2018
The prices of most metals continued to make gains in the first month of 2018. The persistent depreciation of the US dollar supported the prices of all the metals, but notably that of gold. However, concerns about demand, notably from China, started to …
5th February 2018
India’s budget for FY18/19, released yesterday, was a mixed bag for gold. On the one hand, incomeboosting measures for the rural population are good news for jewellery demand. On the other hand, the budget has made it more costly to import gold. On …
2nd February 2018
Our analysis shows that dollar weakness can explain much of the recent strength in the price of gold. As such, given our view that the US currency will appreciate this year, we think that those gains will soon be reversed. … Is there more to the gold …
31st January 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.9% y/y increase in global steel production in December and a 5.3% rise in 2017 as a whole. Expectations that the capacity closures in China would prompt a sharp fall in output were once again disappointed. We …
24th January 2018
Global aluminium output bounced back last month, led by a jump in China’s production. It seems likely that refineries ramped up output to benefit from high prices and the capacity closures in parts of China. With no apparent shortage of supply, we expect …
22nd January 2018
China’s activity and investment held up well in December, although growth was markedly slower than earlier in the year. We expect the slowdown to continue in the coming months. … China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor …
19th January 2018
A surge in cancelled warrants on LME stocks can explain some of the rally in the price of zinc. That said, inventories of most other metals have risen over the last month, suggesting markets are amply supplied. Indeed, we expect stocks to build further as …
15th January 2018
Electric vehicle sales have skyrocketed over the past few years. As a result, the sector has become a growing source of demand for metals. In this Metals Watch , we look at the latest trends in electric vehicles sales and infrastructure and assess the …
11th January 2018
At first glance, the recent poor performance of silver would appear surprising given that both gold and industrial metals prices rallied in 2017. However, we think that reduced safe-haven demand has undermined silver, as investors tend to favour gold when …
9th January 2018
Aluminium production in China is likely to continue to fall over the next few months as the Chinese authorities impose output cuts. While this would give the impression of a tighter market, Shanghai-based stocks have soared and we expect demand to weaken …
5th January 2018
The prices of most metals rallied in 2017, bolstered by strong Chinese economic growth, a weaker dollar and, in some cases, supply concerns. But, overall, industrial metals outperformed precious metals last year, as Fed tightening acted as a powerful …
4th January 2018
World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.7% y/y increase in global steel production in November and a 5.2% rise in the year-to-date with all major steel-producing countries recording increases over the year. Whilst production in China fell sharply on …
20th December 2017
The latest output data for November point to a tighter aluminium market. We had always expected this to happen as the planned closures in China began last month. However, growth in demand has also slowed. As such, we expect prices to edge lower over the …
Total exchange stocks of most metals fell in 2017 on a combination of constrained supply and solid growth in China’s demand in the first half of the year. We expect stocks to build over the course of 2018 as supply bottlenecks ease and growth in China’s …
18th December 2017