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The price of palladium has reached another record high today, but we remain of the view that this elevated level is unlikely to last. In fact, it is now clear that supply rose strongly in 2018 which, coupled with the current slowdown in car sales, should …
15th February 2019
Constrained supply growth and surging demand from electric vehicles mean that we think that the price of copper will rise by over 60%, to nearly $10,000 per tonne, by 2025. This is likely to represent a high watermark for prices. Our long-term forecast …
14th February 2019
China’s industrial activity data suggest that metals demand held up well in the last quarter of 2018, but we don’t expect this to last in 2019 as a downturn in economic activity will weigh on demand. … China Industrial Metals Demand …
7th February 2019
Prices of base and precious metals, along with iron ore, have risen robustly so far in 2019 but we believe that prices will diverge sooner rather than later. We expect the prices of industrial metals to falter as the Chinese economy slows further, while …
5th February 2019
Gold demand from the official sector soared to its highest level since 1967 last year as central banks became increasingly keen to diversify from dollar assets. But, we expect the big story for 2019 to be the return of investor interest, continuing the …
31st January 2019
The latest trade data from India and China show that gold imports slumped in December. We expect the decline in imports to continue in India, for January at least, as prices are higher in local currency terms in this price-sensitive market. However, in …
29th January 2019
In light of a tragic accident in Brumadinho, we are revising up our iron ore price forecasts for this year and next in anticipation of weaker-than-expected Brazilian output. However, we are still of the view that the market will be well supplied and have …
28th January 2019
Global demand growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, causing investor sentiment towards industrial metals to deteriorate. Both of these factors should drag industrial metals prices lower this year. In stark contrast, …
Today’s data suggest that rapid increases in global steel output in 2018 are not set to be repeated in 2019. We think demand weakness will be a drag on prices and production this year. … Global Steel Production …
25th January 2019
European smelter closures and a further reduction in output at the Bécancour smelter in Canada saw global production growth plummet m/m in December. However, with cost pressures easing and smelters ramping up, this will merely prove to be a lull. … Global …
21st January 2019
Subdued levels of supply growth combined with increasing global demand will ensure that copper remains in a substantial market deficit and that prices will hold up well in 2019. … Copper prices to stand firm this …
18th January 2019
We think aluminium prices will drop from around $1,865 per tonne at present to $1,750 by end-2019 due to rising output and falling costs at a time of sluggish demand. … Lower costs, lower prices for aluminium in …
We remain bullish on gold and silver prices and have revised up our end-2019 forecasts to $1,350 per ounce and $17.50 respectively, as we expect both metals to attract investors seeking safe havens. … New gold and silver price …
10th January 2019
After strong growth in 2018, we think that China’s imports of most industrial metals will be softer in 2019, reflecting slower economic growth and weaker domestic demand. … Weaker demand to weigh on Chinese …
9th January 2019
China has announced a (small) increase in its reported official sector gold holdings for the first time in over two years, but regardless of whether this is repeated in the near future, central bank buying is set to remain a significant prop to gold …
8th January 2019
We suspect that there will be further falls in industrial metals prices as global economic growth slows and investors continue to flee from riskier assets. That said, economic and financial uncertainty provides a relatively positive backdrop for the …
4th January 2019
Closures of Chinese smelters in December mean that November’s sharp increase in global aluminium production will not be repeated. Consequently, the recent surge in stocks could start to unwind. … Global Aluminium Production …
20th December 2018
The price of gold has slowly and steadily risen in recent weeks to a 5-month high ahead of last night’s US Federal Reserve meeting. In this Metals Watch , we explain why we believe this rally in the gold price is warranted and why we expect it to rise to …
In recent months, the price of nickel has plummeted as investor sentiment has waned on concerns about demand. We think that prices will drop in 2019 as growth in global supply remains strong and demand continues to be subdued. … The electric vehicles boom …
17th December 2018
The price of zinc has fallen sharply since June but what is more remarkable is that the futures curve has shifted into a steep backwardation. We forecast that zinc prices will continue to drop in 2019 and that future prices will move into contango by the …
12th December 2018
Chinese steel prices have slumped recently but with demand set to be weak over the coming months and less stringent pollution controls, we expect steel prices to drop by a further 20% over the next year. … No respite in sight for plummeting Chinese steel …
11th December 2018
The price of palladium rose above that of gold earlier this week for the first time since 2002, but gold has returned to a premium today and we think this premium will grow as the palladium price falters on the back of stuttering auto sales. … Palladium’s …
6th December 2018
Steel and iron ore prices fell precipitously in November, as the reality of slowing Chinese demand growth finally filtered through into softer prices. We think that global demand will continue to falter, with China slowing further and that this will act …
5th December 2018
Despite dropping to a multi-year low recently, we think that tin prices will fall further over the next year as Chinese demand falters. However, this should mark a turning point for the tin price, not least because production from Myanmar appears to have …
29th November 2018
We think that the prices of precious metals, except palladium, will rise in 2019, in part because we expect an early end to Fed tightening and stronger safe-haven demand in the second half of the year. … Investors to return to precious …
28th November 2018
Gold imports by China and India slumped on a y/y basis in October. However, we expect a rebound in imports to India in the coming months as gold prices in rupee terms have dropped back. … China and India Gold Imports …
26th November 2018
Growth in global steel output accelerated in October to 5.8% y/y, but we expect it to slip back in the coming months as Chinese steel prices have slumped and there are mounting signs of weaker demand. … Global Steel Production …
23rd November 2018
The silver market has moved into its first meaningful surplus since 2010 as investor demand has plunged but we expect this will rebound next year, causing the surplus to dwindle and silver prices to rally. … Silver surplus unlikely to last …
21st November 2018
We think that the prices of industrial metals will drop in 2019, in part because we expect investor sentiment to remain weak owing to slower economic growth in China and the US. … Investors are right to be …
20th November 2018
Rising Asian output explains most of the surge in global aluminium production in October and fewer cutbacks in China and restarts in North America should ensure strong y/y supply growth in the coming months. … Global Aluminium Production …
The price of iron ore has jumped on the back of expectations of weaker anti-pollution measures in China. In this Metals Watch we explain why we think higher prices will prove short-lived. … Iron ore prices to …
16th November 2018
China’s latest activity and investment data paint a mixed picture of metals demand but we expect growth in consumption to slow until mid-2019. … China Industrial Metals Demand …
15th November 2018
A temporary cut in output from Nyrstar’s Port Pirie smelter will not stop lead prices falling further as auto sales are slowing and lead-acid batteries see market share eroded by electric cars. … Lead looking for longer-term …
13th November 2018
We think that cobalt prices will rebound, by approximately 30%, between now and mid-2019, aided by a temporary halt to cobalt sales and exports from a major operation in the DRC. … Cobalt caught in a …
8th November 2018
We believe that the price of US steel is currently too high, despite the 25% tariff on imports, and that slower growth in demand and higher domestic supply should prompt prices to fall back in 2019. … US steel prices likely to prove …
After strong gains in September, most base metals prices fell in the past month, as global growth concerns made investors more risk averse. Against this backdrop, precious metals generally gained, with gold boosted by a return to net ETF buying. We expect …
6th November 2018
After a lacklustre first half of the year, global gold demand rose in Q3, albeit marginally. We think that consumer demand may well remain soft in Q4, but the upturn in ETF holdings in October could continue over the next year and play a central role in …
1st November 2018
Total exchange stocks for most industrial metals have declined year-to-date with cancelled warrants up in most cases, which implies strong demand. The major exception is tin. In 2019, we expect a reversal in this stocks picture as we think that the global …
31st October 2018
The price of aluminium in Shanghai has been appreciably lower than on the LME for much of this year, while the reverse has been true for lead prices. Neither is sustainable and we think that global aluminium prices may converge sooner than those of lead. …
30th October 2018
An economic slowdown in China and less severe cuts to Chinese capacity should lead to lower industrial metals prices over the next year. In contrast, precious metals prices should gain from safe-haven flows and asset reallocation. By 2020, slower supply …
26th October 2018
The latest trade data for China and India show gold imports tumbled in September and higher gold prices in October could mean that imports remain weak, despite the Indian wedding season. … China and India’s gold imports …
25th October 2018
Growth in global steel production accelerated in September to 4.4% y/y, with mills ramping up in China and the US buoyed by healthy margins in both countries. We expect winter production cuts in China will not prevent strong y/y growth in world output in …
24th October 2018
Global aluminium output in January-September was only slightly higher than a year ago as production gains in the US, India and the Gulf states have been offset by lower output in China and Europe. We expect that prevailing low prices will act as a ceiling …
22nd October 2018
Automobile demand has been sluggish for several months in China. This will weigh on demand for most metals and lead to lower prices too, especially for platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. … Weak auto sales signal lower metals prices …
18th October 2018
Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. … Chinese steel prices set to …
11th October 2018
With LME Week starting today, it appears an opportune time to review the main discussion points that will be the hot topics at this seminal event in the metals calendar, and to share our views on them. … Five key questions for LME …
8th October 2018
Metal prices rebounded strongly in September, in a relief rally, as the latest round of US-Chinese tariffs were lower than initially feared. However, slower growth in Chinese manufacturing and the prospect of less severe Chinese supply cuts this winter …
5th October 2018
Alumina prices have jumped in recent months on supply-side concerns. We think that the current supply disruptions will be resolved and we expect prices to fall by end-2019. … Alumina prices to …
27th September 2018
The latest trade data for India and China show gold imports by the two largest consumers rising on lower prices, but this is unlikely to last as local prices have rallied, which has already started to crimp demand. … China and India Gold Imports …
In recent days, the price of zinc has rebounded a little after plummeting over the summer. In this Metals Watch we will discuss why we think that any rally will prove short-lived. A slew of new mines and restarts, coupled with weak demand from China’s …
26th September 2018
