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China steel output should fall some more The monthly fall in China’s steel production should continue over the next two months, but the outlook is a little brighter in 2024. Elsewhere, production rose in October, and India’s production in particular …
22nd November 2023
Supply stays strong Global aluminium production rose in October and set a monthly record. This is unlikely to be broken over the next few months as China’s output should fall as smelters curb output over winter. According to the International Aluminium …
20th November 2023
Further falls in global steel supply are likely Monthly global steel output in September fell in year-on-year terms for the first time in 2023, in large part due to a contraction in China’s production. With demand set to remain weak and low profitability …
24th October 2023
Robust supply growth, but it is mostly a China story After reaching a record high in August, global aluminium production eased back in September but remained strong. Given that demand growth is relatively subdued, the increase in global supply may only …
20th October 2023
Global steel production growth continues to struggle The slowdown in global steel production in August is consistent with our long-held view that slowing demand will weigh on production in the second half of this year. Weakening demand stems from slowing …
25th September 2023
A healthier picture of aluminium supply An increase in year-on-year production growth, coupled with upward revisions to the back data, means that global aluminium supply is much stronger than previously thought. Production reached a record high in August …
20th September 2023
Global steel production continues to stagnate Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will soften as …
22nd August 2023
Global aluminium supply slides into contraction Global aluminium production growth slowed for the seventh consecutive month and dipped into contractionary territory in July on the back of weakness in China. We think production growth will stagnate as …
21st August 2023
Global growth in steel output stagnating Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply in other …
25th July 2023
Aluminium production remains strong but growth is softening Global aluminium production growth eased again in June, in a sign that smelters are responding to weak demand growth. We think that production growth will remain subdued over the next few months …
20th July 2023
Steel mills slamming the brakes on production Global steel production fell sharply in y/y terms in May. Against the backdrop of subdued demand and stringent supply caps in China, the supply outlook over the next few months appears bleak. According to the …
21st June 2023
Aluminium production growth could start to pick up soon If reports of a forthcoming easing of output restrictions in Yunnan province are accurate, then the ongoing slowdown in China’s aluminium production growth could come to an end soon. Much will also …
20th June 2023
Supply reviving, but the demand picture remains subdued There were clear signs of a pick-up in global steel production in March, led by China, but output in the EU also ticked up. However, the rise in supply is going hand in hand with increasing stocks. …
21st April 2023
Norsk Hydro strikes will weigh on European aluminium output Global production growth y/y slowed in March and came close to stalling. In fact, excluding China, global production growth was 0%. These latest data are consistent with our view that output …
20th April 2023
Supply picture improving, but plenty of challenges remain There were a few positive signs in February’s steel production figures; output in China grew healthily and production in advanced economies (DMs) appears to have troughed. However, any rebound in …
23rd March 2023
Stripping away calendar effects, global aluminium production increased slightly last month. We expect output to continue to grow steadily this year, mostly in response to rising demand in China. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), …
20th March 2023
Global steel output remained depressed in January and is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming months. However, a rebound in China’s demand and lower power costs in Europe should prompt some recovery in supply later in the year. The World Steel …
22nd February 2023
Aluminium production to slowly increase this year Global aluminium production fell slightly in January compared to December, although the bigger picture is one of fairly steady production since the middle of last year. We expect production to respond to …
20th February 2023
Global steel supply to remain subdued in early 2023 Global steel output slumped in December and fell sharply in 2022 as a whole. With demand likely to be weak, at least in the first half of 2023, we do not expect a marked rebound any time soon. The World …
31st January 2023
Aluminium production growth to struggle in 2023 Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2% in 2022 from 2.7% in 2021. We forecast that weaker output growth in China and another difficult year in Europe will lead to even softer growth this year. …
20th January 2023
Global steel supply well and truly in the doldrums Global steel output is now firmly in contractionary territory by any measure. With several headwinds unlikely to relent soon, it is likely that output will weaken even further from here. Figures released …
22nd December 2022
Aluminium production in decline, despite positive base effects A low base in 2021 is driving an increase in global aluminium output this year, but the bigger picture is that growth in supply is slowing as high power costs and soft demand take their …
20th December 2022
Cracks in global steel supply widening Global steel production growth is deteriorating a bit faster than we had thought. Even very flattering base effects failed to keep steel output growth in positive territory. With global economic activity weakening …
22nd November 2022
Weak demand and high energy costs weighing on aluminium output While the latest year-on-year increase in global aluminium production is suggestive of an improving supply environment, output actually fell in absolute terms and probably has further to …
21st November 2022
China aside, steel production is in decline Although base effects will boost output in y/y terms in the final months of this year, the bigger picture is that slower economic activity and still-high energy costs will weigh on global steel demand and output …
25th October 2022
China drives global production growth, for now The acceleration in year-on-year production growth in September paints a prettier picture of supply than reality. The global economic downturn and high energy prices will weigh on supply from here. …
20th October 2022
Supply ticked up, but the bigger picture is of weak steel output A pick-up in supply from China boosted global steel production in August. However, with economic activity starting to slow and high energy costs across the world, the outlook is for steel …
22nd September 2022
The supply outlook continues to worsen Global aluminium production rose at a slightly faster pace in August than in July, as Chinese production picked up and helped to compensate for a steeper reduction in European output. However, it looks as though …
20th September 2022
Production stuck in low gear Global steel production fell at a faster pace in July. The latest data are broadly consistent with our view that supply will fall this year, which should put a floor under prices even with soft demand . The World Steel …
23rd August 2022
The supply outlook has deteriorated Global aluminium production rose at a slightly slower pace in July, mostly because production in North America fell at a faster clip, while output in Europe continued to slump. Production growth could slow further this …
22nd August 2022
Production to remain sluggish this year Global steel production growth slowed in June as higher power costs in advanced economies contributed to lower output there. By contrast, the decline in China’s output slowed slightly. Overall, we expect global …
22nd July 2022
Supply growth to remain muted Global aluminium production ticked up again in June, but the increase was not sufficient to explain the plunge in prices last month. Base effects will mean that China’s production growth will accelerate in the second half of …
20th July 2022
Steel production to remain lacklustre in 2022 Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to curb carbon …
22nd June 2022
Supply is picking up, just as prices fall Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that aluminium …
20th June 2022
Steel production still depressed by high energy costs Global steel production fell in y/y terms in April, as all major producers bar India recorded declines. High energy costs and soft demand for steel are both likely to persist for much of the remainder …
24th May 2022
China could ride to the rescue After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this year. That said, supply …
20th May 2022
High energy costs keep squeeze on steel production Global steel production fell in y/y terms in March, as largest producer China recorded a decline for the third consecutive month this year. Looking ahead, we expect high energy costs to act as a …
22nd April 2022
High power costs keep a lid on aluminium output. Global aluminium output fell by 1.5% y/y in March with high power costs keeping a lid on production growth. Looking ahead, we expect regions where energy prices are more manageable to continue to increase …
20th April 2022
Weaker China demand and high energy costs to drag on steel output Global steel production fell in y/y terms in February, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. Our expectation is that high energy costs and softer construction-led demand growth in …
22nd March 2022
Soaring energy costs to weigh on supply for some time High power prices in Europe continued to cause production curtailment in February but there were signs of a rebound in China’s production. Looking ahead, we expect supply to remain constrained for now …
21st March 2022
Steel output starts the year on a weaker footing Global steel production fell in y/y terms in January, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. It appears that subdued demand in China is acting as a constraint on output. Our expectation of softer …
22nd February 2022
Global aluminium output off to a slow start Global aluminium output fell by 4.5% y/y in the first month of 2022. A combination of high power prices in Europe and the New Year festival in China dragged down refined aluminium production. Looking ahead, we …
21st February 2022
Despite power rationing, aluminium output grows in 2021 Although global aluminium output fell in y/y terms in December, it still grew strongly over 2021. The lifting of power restrictions in China has helped increase global output despite a reduction in …
20th January 2022
Weak steel demand will weigh on China’s steel output for some months yet Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs …
22nd December 2021
Output to bounce back in the months ahead, despite slipping in November Despite a y/y fall in global aluminium output in November, it is still up strongly year-to-date. And it is likely to rise again from here as power restrictions in China are lifted and …
20th December 2021
China will remain a drag on global steel output Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but …
23rd November 2021
Aluminium output boosted as power rationing in China eases October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium …
22nd November 2021
Slump in output points to high prices for longer Global steel output plunged in September primarily owing to a dramatic decline in China’s production. We suspect that China’s output will remain low for some months yet, which will act as a floor under …
26th October 2021
High power costs likely to deter production Slower growth in aluminium output in September was probably linked to surging power prices. The combination of constrained output and soaring production costs will support aluminium prices in the near term and …
20th October 2021
High prices failing to boost steel supply, at least so far Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear …
23rd September 2021
