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Overview – We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent months and this should continue to support …
4th April 2024
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the ailing property sector, which should be less …
15th December 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Brent oil price …
26th September 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect prices to tick up later in the year owing to …
29th June 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices. However, later in the year, prices should …
31st March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown will be …
16th December 2022
Overview – Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and product exports, coupled with the output quota cut …
31st October 2022
Overview – While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months, but many of the supply risks that prompted …
28th July 2022
Overview – The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think energy prices will remain historically high …
29th April 2022
Overview – Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in 2022. After all, demand for metal from key …
27th January 2022
Overview – Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term. However, we expect these supply issues to be …
3rd November 2021
Overview – Although the prices of industrial metals have picked up again recently, we still expect them to be falling over the next year or so. Underpinning this view are our forecasts for economic growth to slow in China, a continued rebound in supply …
4th August 2021
Overview – Although we anticipate a strong global economic recovery in 2021, our forecast of a slowdown in China’s economy means that we still expect industrial metals prices to end the year lower. At the same time, a stronger US dollar and rising US …
28th April 2021
Overview – Industrial metals prices had a stellar 2020, with prices ending the year higher than where they started. But just as China’s strong economic recovery lifted metals prices in 2020, so will China’s slowdown in growth weigh on them in H2 2021, as …
28th January 2021
Overview – Industrial metals prices have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the stimulus-fuelled recovery in China’s economy. But given how far prices have risen already, and that we think demand outside of China will remain lacklustre, an …
26th October 2020
Overview – Despite base metals prices already nearing pre-virus levels, we think that the rally has further to run. The key factor underpinning our positive outlook is the planned policy stimulus in China, much of which will take the form of …
31st July 2020
Overview – Measures designed to contain the spread of coronavirus have dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. Assuming that these measures are lifted at a global level in the second half of the year, we expect a small pick-up in industrial metals prices by …
27th April 2020
Overview – A sharp decline in China’s economic growth in Q1 as a result of the coronavirus outbreak now seems certain. This will be a significant negative for metals demand, as China is the world’s single largest consumer of most metals, accounting for …
5th February 2020
Overview – We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed our price forecasts for most base metals but …
1st November 2019
Overview – Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of this year as global growth slows and investor …
29th July 2019