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Production increased dramatically last week, mainly due to revisions to the historical data. However, output is growing much more quickly than many expected which should continue to put downward pressure on prices over the rest of the year. … US Weekly …
7th February 2018
We expect the prices of most energy commodities to fall back over the next few months as the weather normalises and the dollar stabilises. Indeed, prices fell at the start of February amid a broader market selloff and growing signs that supply is …
6th February 2018
A slump in demand for oil from refineries and another increase in production combined to boost US crude inventories last week for the first time since mid-November. At least part of the recent surge in oil prices has been driven by the persistent falls in …
31st January 2018
We think that about half of the surge in oil prices since the start of December can be attributed to the slump in the US dollar. However, a stronger dollar should put some downward pressure on oil prices over the course of 2018. That said, growing supply …
The fall in crude stocks last week was overshadowed by rising US output, lower refinery runs and ballooning gasoline inventories. Indeed, US oil production is now within touching distance of 10m bpd. This is a key reason why we expect WTI prices to fall …
24th January 2018
A larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks last week is somewhat at odds with the rebound in production and fall in refinery runs. But what is clear is that gasoline stocks have continued to build on weak demand. As such, demand from refineries may …
18th January 2018
Today’s report showed an unexpected rise in OPEC’s production in December, despite a dramatic decline in Venezuela’s output. At the same time, the group made a small upward revision to its expectations of non-OPEC supply growth. But we still think that …
Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we expect China’s ongoing shift towards natural gas to …
11th January 2018
US crude stocks continued to fall last week but product stocks have increased sharply since November as demand from refineries has not been matched by higher product consumption. This may pressure refineries to start maintenance runs soon, which could …
10th January 2018
A combination of falling US stocks, mounting geopolitical risk and OPEC’s deal to extend its output cuts has pushed the price of oil higher in recent weeks. However, we think that rising non-OPEC output will prevent any marked shortfall in oil supply in …
5th January 2018
Persistent strength in demand from refineries and an increase in exports pushed US crude stocks lower last week. However, petroleum product stocks jumped as demand plummeted during the holiday season and US oil production rebounded to a near-record high. …
4th January 2018
A number of temporary factors, including unusually cold winter weather and supply disruptions, gave a last-minute boost to the price of oil in 2017. Coal and LNG prices also benefitted from high seasonal demand. However, the oil supply disruptions have …
US crude stocks fell sharply again last week as refineries churned out more products and net imports dropped back. However, stocks of petroleum products are still rising meaning that some refineries may be tempted to start maintenance runs early. This …
20th December 2017
Strong Chinese demand for oil this year has helped to rebalance the market. However, a slowing economy, an increasing focus on anti-pollution measures in major cities and a reduction in strategic stockpiling could weigh on China’s growth in demand for oil …
19th December 2017
US crude stocks fell sharply again last week. However, surging US production could potentially push the global oil market back into a surplus next year. What’s more, stocks of petroleum products are rising rapidly, meaning that demand from refineries may …
13th December 2017
Today’s report showed that OPEC’s production fell again last month. However, the group also increased its expectations of non-OPEC supply growth. We think that the cartel is still being too optimistic with its projections for non-OPEC output next year and …
The recent rise in prices makes a large jump in US oil production next year relatively certain. However, rising costs, fewer efficiency gains and maturing fields will start to weigh on growth towards the end of 2018 and into 2019. … Are forecasts for US …
7th December 2017
A large drop in crude stocks was eclipsed by an even bigger jump in gasoline inventories. Weak demand for fuel products and a rebound in imports would weigh on oil prices over the next few months. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
6th December 2017
The big news last month was the announcement by OPEC and its allies that they would extend their output cuts until the end of 2018 rather than finishing them in March as had been planned. However, in the event, the market reaction was rather subdued as an …
4th December 2017
As expected, OPEC announced yesterday that it, together with Russia and some other non-OPEC producers, would be extending the output cuts by nine months until the end of 2018, with the possibility of a review at the group’s next meeting in June. … OPEC …
1st December 2017
A large fall in crude stocks will have cheered OPEC before its meeting tomorrow. However, the reduction in inventories was largely due to temporary disruption to imports. What’s more, rising oil production and a sharp drop in demand for gasoline will make …
29th November 2017
The oil market is largely expecting OPEC to extend its production deal until the end of 2018 at its meeting at the end of November. This Energy Watch will look at some of the options available to the cartel and how supply and prices might react to various …
27th November 2017
Changes to the tax treatment of some North Sea oil and gas fields will no doubt be welcomed by the industry and could help to prevent production falling back over the next few years. However, we doubt that any increase in the UK’s oil output will be large …
23rd November 2017
Higher exports and the continued recovery in demand from refineries helped to drawdown stocks of crude oil last week. While we think that stocks will continue to fall, for the next few weeks at least, growing US production is likely to weigh on prices …
22nd November 2017
Rising production and imports caused a build in crude inventories last week, but a fall in consumption of oil products will add to concerns about a slowdown in demand, which could weigh on prices. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
15th November 2017
The revival in the US coal industry is due to a surge in demand from China and solid domestic consumption, rather than any changes to legislation. However, rising supply, slowing economic growth in China and more use of natural gas and renewable energy …
14th November 2017
Lower OPEC output and brighter prospects for demand mean that the group is likely to be relatively cheerful at its meeting at the end of the month. However, unless the group reduces its production further, the rebalancing of the market is likely to stall. …
13th November 2017
Even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of next year, stocks are still likely to exceed their fiveyear average, which should put some downward pressure on oil prices next year. … OPEC unlikely to reach stocks …
9th November 2017
A sharp rise in US demand for products is in line with other indicators showing a pick-up in consumption recently. But record levels of oil production will delay the wider oil market rebalancing. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
8th November 2017
Oil prices jumped in recent days on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East but, assuming that a direct conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is avoided, the fundamentals suggest that prices are likely to surrender their gains in the …
7th November 2017
After looking like they may have run out of steam in September, the rallies in coal and oil prices returned with a vengeance last month. Indeed, speculation about supply restrictions – by OPEC for the oil market and at Chinese mines for the coal market – …
2nd November 2017
The large drop in stocks of crude and gasoline last week would appear, at first glance, to be a further sign that the oil market is tightening. But much of the reduction in crude stocks was due to lower net imports whilst production rose again. These …
1st November 2017
The stability in US natural gas prices since early this year has led many market commentators to assume that prices will be stuck at current levels for the foreseeable future. This Energy Watch will briefly take stock of why prices have been so flat …
31st October 2017
Growth in non-OPEC supply and lower geopolitical risks means that the price of Brent is unlikely to stay above $60 per barrel, even if OPEC extends its output cuts until the end of the year. … Price of Brent likely to slip back below …
30th October 2017
A rebound in production and a slight rise in net imports led to an increase in crude stocks last week. On the other hand, stocks of gasoline and distillates fell as demand picked up and net imports declined. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
25th October 2017
The rebound in China and India’s coal imports is likely to be short-lived as higher domestic production and slowing consumption growth reduce the need for imports. … Rise in coal imports likely to be …
The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative fuel vehicles and improvements in fuel efficiency mean …
20th October 2017
A drop in net imports and lower production contributed to a fall in crude inventories last week. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks moved higher as demand for petroleum products slumped. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
18th October 2017
President Trump’s refusal to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil industry has given a boost to oil prices, but it is not a given that Congress will reinstate sanctions and support from international partners is unlikely. … Iran’s oil exports unlikely to fall …
16th October 2017
Last week’s reduction in US crude stocks was mainly owing to lower production and a recovery in refinery inputs. Stocks are likely to continue to fall over the next few weeks as demand gains momentum. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
12th October 2017
Temporary supply disruptions and strong demand in Asia have boosted LNG prices to an almost 9-month high. However, the rally may soon lose momentum as winter demand looks set to peak at a time of booming supply. We expect prices to trend downwards in 2018 …
11th October 2017
OPEC production rose last month due to increases in Libya and Nigeria. However, estimates of slower non-OPEC output growth and stronger demand offer some hope for rebalancing. … Oil market showing more signs of …
The collapse in US net oil imports over the last few weeks has helped to draw down crude inventories in the country. This has raised hopes that market rebalancing is accelerating and has been one reason for the recent rise in oil prices. However, the …
9th October 2017
If President Trump refuses to waive the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports then we would expect oil prices to rise. However, it is not clear that Congress would vote to re-impose sanctions on the country and, in any case, sanctions are unlikely to be as …
6th October 2017
A surge in exports to the highest level on record last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect exports to remain high while the Brent-WTI spread is wide which should help to reduce stocks further. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
4th October 2017
The rallies in the prices of coal and oil look like they may have run out of steam in the last week. The prices of both had been boosted by stronger demand and supply disruptions. However, global production of coal is rising rapidly and US oil output has …
The last three months have seen a turnaround in the oil market as investor sentiment turned positive and prices jumped. This Energy Watch will briefly take stock of what has been driving prices up recently before examining what is likely to happen to …
29th September 2017
Global oil demand was given a boost in the second quarter of this year largely due to a stronger global economy. The latest data point to a bright outlook for oil demand over the next year as the global economy continues to expand. This should help to …
28th September 2017
A surge in exports and demand from refineries last week helped to draw down crude stocks. We expect these trends to continue which should help to narrow the Brent-WTI spread over the next few weeks. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
27th September 2017
Last week’s increase in US crude stocks is mainly due to the lingering impact of Hurricane Harvey. Demand for petroleum products remains reasonably strong, which should help the market rebalance. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
20th September 2017