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We think that forecasts of even higher non-OPEC supply this year will push the cartel into increasing output at its meeting next week. … OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report …
12th June 2018
Inventories of crude oil increased last week due to higher net imports and strong growth in US crude production. Indeed, we expect the rapid rise in US output to weigh on crude prices later in the year as logistical constraints ease and more US oil is …
6th June 2018
The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in pipeline capacity will facilitate exports of US oil, which …
5th June 2018
Oil prices were volatile in May, rising in the first half of the month as President Trump re-imposed sanctions on Iran, then falling in the second half due to rising US production and speculation that OPEC would boost output in June. The Brent-WTI spread …
Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a dip in net imports and strong demand from refineries. But the pick-up in crude production is more than sufficient to meet the increase in demand, which should result in lower prices later in the year. … US …
31st May 2018
Warmer weather, slower economic growth in China and the rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should help to reverse the recent jump in demand for coal and reduce prices over the next few years. … Waning demand for coal to weigh on …
30th May 2018
The next OPEC meeting on 22nd June will probably decide the direction of oil prices over the rest of the year. This Energy Watch will examine how OPEC is progressing towards the aims it set out when it first announced the production cuts. It will then …
25th May 2018
Inventories of crude oil rose last week as net imports jumped despite a widening of the Brent-WTI spread. The spread is likely to remain wide over the next few months as surging output and logistical constraints keep WTI prices relatively low. … US Weekly …
23rd May 2018
We expect global oil consumption to rise steadily this year on the back of strong economic growth. However, if oil prices remain around their current levels or rise further, consumption growth could slow sharply in 2019. This is an additional reason to …
22nd May 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell last week as net imports slumped. However, we remain of the view that surging US oil output will weigh on prices later in the year. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
16th May 2018
We still think that OPEC’s forecast that the market will be in a large deficit this year is too ambitious. But we do expect it to be close to balance as higher prices depress demand growth and encourage non-OPEC production. … OPEC Monthly Oil Market …
14th May 2018
Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be more restrictive than we think. However, a sharp drop in …
10th May 2018
Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as net imports fell. In contrast, US crude production rose to another record. The recent surge in crude prices is likely to lead to even faster growth in output than we had previously expected, which should drag …
9th May 2018
The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal, the impact on oil supply could be more severe. As such, …
Oil prices jumped in April as tensions escalated in the Middle East, especially the risk that the US will re-impose sanctions on Iran, and speculation increased that OPEC will extend its output cuts into 2019. Meanwhile, US natural gas prices remained low …
3rd May 2018
The surge in availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which does not need pipeline infrastructure, has raised the prospect of a more fungible natural gas market. In this Energy Watch , we look at the recent trends in the regional gas markets and …
Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports increased, demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower prices later in the year. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
2nd May 2018
Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower prices later in the year. What’s more, demand for gasoline dropped back after …
25th April 2018
The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. … Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its …
Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we still think that prices are likely to fall significantly …
20th April 2018
Inventories of crude oil slipped last week as net imports slumped. But the big surprise was a jump in demand for gasoline, to a new record. However, we would caution that such large moves in the weekly data are often reversed in subsequent data releases. …
18th April 2018
At least part of this week’s increase in oil prices is justified by the sudden escalation in tensions in the Middle East and resulting risk to oil supplies, either from sanctions or damage to oil infrastructure. However, higher prices will encourage …
13th April 2018
OPEC revised up its forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018 again and estimated that the market was in a surplus in the first quarter. Admittedly, the cartel still expects the market to be in deficit this year. But we think that this is unlikely given the …
12th April 2018
Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports rebounded and production rose again. The recent increase in prices is likely to encourage even more US production, which should weigh on prices by the end of the year. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
11th April 2018
Near-record non-commercial net-long futures positions in the oil market mean that prices could fall sharply if investor sentiment sours. … Oil prices vulnerable to a shift in investor …
10th April 2018
March was a mixed month for energy commodities. Oil prices jumped on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East and speculation that OPEC would extend its production cuts into 2019. However, prices fell back at the start of April on concerns over a …
5th April 2018
Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as exports rebounded and refineries processed more crude. However, production set another weekly record. We still expect prices to fall this year as surging output overtakes growth in demand, which could also be …
4th April 2018
Inventories of crude oil rose last week as imports rebounded and production grew again. Admittedly, demand from refineries and consumers is strong. But we still expect soaring output to lead to higher stocks and lower prices in the second half of this …
28th March 2018
Oil prices have surged recently, partly due to expectations that OPEC will extend its production cuts into next year. However, some members of the group are emphasising the need for an exit strategy, to avoid shrinking OPEC’s market share by even more. …
Increasing tensions in the Middle East and expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts have driven oil prices higher recently. However, even if President Trump reimposes sanctions on Iran, production is unlikely to fall by much. What’s more, we …
26th March 2018
In our view, the new yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no long-term impact on oil prices, even if it becomes a major benchmark. At any rate, a history of extreme volatility in China’s futures contracts and concerns about capital controls …
23rd March 2018
Contrary to almost all expectations, compliance with OPEC’s output quotas has been good so far. However, game theory suggests that higher oil prices increase the pay-off from cheating on the deal, which means that compliance could fall in 2018. What’s …
22nd March 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell last week as imports dropped and demand from refineries jumped. However, production is still rising rapidly. We expect soaring output to lead to higher stocks and lower prices in the second half of this year. … US Weekly …
21st March 2018
Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help to ensure that oil demand will continue to be robust. … …
19th March 2018
Another rise in US production drove crude stocks higher last week, despite lower net imports and a rebound in demand from refineries. Surging oil supply from the US is a key reason why we expect oil prices to fall over the remainder of this year. … US …
14th March 2018
There was another significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the OECD. However, the cartel still expects the market to be in a deficit this year. In contrast, we expect the market to be in a …
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market looks set to remain comfortably supplied this year, particularly as we expect growth in Asian LNG demand to slow. Given that we are also forecasting a fall in the oil price, LNG prices should ease back this year. … …
12th March 2018
Whilst we do not think that the renegotiation of NAFTA is likely to have a significant impact on demand for most energy commodities, the possibility of more protectionist measures and the subsequent reduction in trade and GDP growth could weigh on demand, …
8th March 2018
A rebound in net imports and jump in US production drove crude stocks higher last week. Surging oil supply from the US is a key reason why we expect oil prices to fall over the rest of this year. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
7th March 2018
Even if the US imposes sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector we doubt that the impact on oil prices will be substantial. The US has already halved its imports from Caracas with no discernible effect on prices, whilst spare capacity in the rest of OPEC is …
6th March 2018
Energy prices were volatile in February, buffeted by equity market gyrations and changing weather forecasts. Oil prices were particularly frothy, but still slumped on the month as US production continued to rise and stocks increased. Similarly, surging …
2nd March 2018
A rebound in net imports drove crude stocks higher last week. Admittedly, imports are volatile so this could be reversed this week. But US oil production also resumed its upward trend and demand for gasoline eased back. We expect oil prices to fall …
28th February 2018
Global oil demand looks set to grow strongly again this year driven by accelerating economic growth in the US, Europe and India. However, a sharp slowdown in China’s economic growth will limit the increase in global oil consumption. Oil demand growth will …
27th February 2018
Coal prices have fallen back a little since the start of this year as temperatures increased and supply picked up, but they remain high. This Energy Watch examines the outlook for demand and supply over the next few years and assesses the potential impact …
23rd February 2018
Inventories of crude oil slumped last week. However, this was mainly due to a drop in net imports which are notoriously volatile. As such, we think that stocks could rebound in the coming weeks, which coupled with further growth in US production should …
22nd February 2018
US natural gas prices should rise this year as domestic demand and LNG exports experience an upsurge. However, a jump in supply will limit the increase in prices. … Strong demand to support US natural gas …
20th February 2018
Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years. However, we are not expecting prices to revisit their recent …
16th February 2018
Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week. Meanwhile, production in the US continued to grow. We expect the surge in US output to push the market back into a surplus this year, which will drag prices down. … US Weekly Petroleum …
14th February 2018
There was a significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the US. However, we still think that the cartel is underestimating growth in output this year and overestimating the strength of demand. … …
12th February 2018
We think that concerns about surging supply in the US will put further downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, even if global equity markets stabilise. … Oil prices have further to …
9th February 2018