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The last-minute waivers on US sanctions granted to eight of Iran’s largest customers suggest supply in the oil market should be more than ample, underpinning our forecast of a further fall in oil prices. … Oil supply fears allayed for …
7th November 2018
US crude stocks increased, boosted by an unexpectedly large jump in US oil output and a small rise in net-imports of crude. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks edged lower. The latest data are consistent with our view that a combination of rising US supply and …
Oil prices plummeted in October on the back of clear signs of a pick-up in supply, rising US crude stocks and concerns about slower global growth. US sanctions on Iran’s oil may bolster prices in the near term, but we expect a market surplus in 2019 to …
2nd November 2018
Crude stocks rose for a sixth consecutive week boosted by higher US oil output and another release from the SPR. That said, product stocks fell sharply but we think this has more to do with subdued refinery runs than strong demand. Indeed, we expect …
31st October 2018
Oil and coal prices look set to ease back over the next year as slower global economic activity constrains demand. At the same time, recent high prices have been incentivising supply. In contrast, natural gas demand is likely to remain robust, boosted by …
25th October 2018
Although crude stocks rose again, a larger-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks stole the headlines. However, we think gasoline stocks will rise again when refineries come out of maintenance. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
24th October 2018
Inventories of crude oil jumped again as exports fell back sharply. The latest data are likely to have been distorted by Hurricane Michael but crude stocks have been building for some weeks and should soon start to exert some downward pressure on prices. …
17th October 2018
We do not expect Saudi Arabia to cut oil production in response to US criticism over a missing journalist, not least because it will want to preserve the “anti-Iran axis” with the US. However, if the Kingdom were to cut output on a similar scale as it did …
15th October 2018
Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which should take some of the heat out of oil prices. … US …
11th October 2018
The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers should lead to lower oil prices …
There is now a large differential between the prices of US-based WTI oil and the more international benchmark, Brent. In our view, this spread could widen further in the near term, but we expect it to start to narrow over the course of 2019-20 as …
9th October 2018
Oil prices have surged in the last month as the market priced in a slump in Iran’s production due to the re-imposition of US sanctions. However, there are now clear signs of weaker demand, which should start to weigh on prices. … Oil at a four-year …
5th October 2018
Inventories of crude oil surged last week, in large part as a result of higher net imports. We think we could see further stock builds in the coming weeks amid signs of softer demand and weak exports. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
3rd October 2018
The price of Brent crude nudged $85 per barrel today, reflecting concerns about the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran. However, we remain of the view that supply from other OPEC and non-OPEC producers will offset lower Iranian output. This is …
2nd October 2018
Inventories of crude oil rose as demand from refineries weakened and US production ticked up. Gasoline stocks also rose, despite lower refinery runs, underpinning our assessment that growth in US demand is softening, which is one reason why we expect the …
26th September 2018
Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting protectionism are likely to weigh further on oil demand. … Oil …
21st September 2018
Inventories of crude oil declined for the fifth consecutive week as net imports fell and refinery runs remained high for the time of the year. That said, refinery runs have started to ease back, which is a trend that is set to continue and which should …
19th September 2018
We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US output growth and persistent concerns about the impact of …
13th September 2018
There was a hefty decline in inventories of crude oil last week, which was in part driven by higher refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline and distillates both rose, as demand faltered. The latest data support our view that growth in demand is slowing …
12th September 2018
The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has sufficient spare capacity to increase production if it needed to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Slower growth in demand and higher supply both from OPEC and non-OPEC producers should put …
Inventories of crude oil fell again last week, despite a rise in net imports. Meanwhile, US production, excluding Alaska, ticked up. We still expect slowing consumption growth and rising production in the US over the next year to weigh on prices globally. …
6th September 2018
August was a good month for energy commodity prices. Oil prices jumped as investors focused on the prospect of lower supply from Iran while the price of US natural gas ticked up as stocks remained well below their five-year average. Elsewhere, LNG prices …
4th September 2018
It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese government will levy a 25% tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we suspect that any tariff will have only a limited impact on prices as China can source LNG elsewhere. However, US producers …
31st August 2018
The relationship between the number of US drilling rigs and oil prices appears to have broken down recently as drilling rigs have failed to rise in line with oil prices. This Energy Watch will examine what may have caused growth in drilling rig numbers to …
30th August 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a drop in net imports, despite a slump in demand from refineries. Another slight decline in US production excluding Alaska is concerning, but we think that output should continue to grow over the rest of the …
29th August 2018
Whether the Saudi Aramco float actually happens or not should make little difference to the oil market. After all, it is now clear that Saudi Arabia is no longer intent on artificially boosting prices to raise the valuation of Aramco, Saudi Aramco is …
23rd August 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell back last week as refinery demand remained strong and net imports dropped back. However, the rise in gasoline and product stocks does point to weaker consumer demand, which we think will start to weigh on prices in the coming …
22nd August 2018
The sale of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announced yesterday, is not large enough to have a significant impact on global oil prices. That said, given the hefty size of the SPR, it could be used to dampen the impact of any …
21st August 2018
Inventories of crude oil jumped last week due to a surge in net imports, despite record demand from refineries. Even though consumption is strong at the minute, we expect a slowdown in US economic growth to weigh on demand in 2019 and 2020. Combined with …
15th August 2018
The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has plenty of room to increase production if it needed to offset falls in Iran and Venezuela. As such, the group’s production should continue to rise, at least until OPEC is no longer under producing its …
13th August 2018
Inventories of crude oil slipped last week but there are signs that demand for products is faltering, reflected in the rise in gasoline stocks. Indeed, lower consumer demand in response to high prevailing prices is a key reason why we expect the price of …
8th August 2018
Oil prices slumped in July as trade tensions rose, ports reopened in Libya and fears of a slowdown in global economic growth increased. However, the short end of the Brent futures curve moved into contango suggesting that investors expect prices to rise …
6th August 2018
Inventories of crude oil jumped last week due to a rebound in net imports. Admittedly, overall production slipped back a little, but this was due to a temporary disruption. Meanwhile, gasoline demand was flat compared with the same time last year, which …
1st August 2018
Energy prices have generally risen over the past few months, despite an appreciating dollar. Strong demand and, in the case of oil, fears about disruptions to supply have boosted prices. However, we suspect that prices will fall back in many cases as …
31st July 2018
Inventories of crude oil plunged last week due to a slump in net imports. Overall production was steady, but output in the shale regions continued to rise despite logistical constraints, which is consistent with our view that rising US output will put …
25th July 2018
Inventories of crude oil surged last week due to a rebound in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Production also increased, which is consistent with our view that rising US output will put some downward pressure on prices later in the year. … …
18th July 2018
The recent drop in oil prices is consistent with our view that growth in crude demand is likely to slow sharply over the next few years while supply should be ample. We still think that prices probably have further to fall over the next year or so, …
17th July 2018
A slowdown in China’s economic growth over the next year combined with the ongoing rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should weigh on demand for coal and reduce prices. … Slower growth in China will lead to lower coal …
16th July 2018
Inventories of crude oil plunged last week due to a slump in net imports. What’s more, it seems likely that the rate of growth in US crude production has slowed recently, which, if sustained, could result in lower than expected supply over the rest of …
11th July 2018
We think that OPEC’s production is likely to rise significantly over the next couple of months. That said, it could fall back later in the year as output from Iran is curtailed and Venezuelan production continues to decline. … OPEC Monthly Oil Market …
The most significant threat facing oil markets is the possibility that US sanctions will lead to a sharp drop in exports from Iran. This Energy Watch will examine how much oil could be lost and what might happen to prices under various scenarios. … How …
9th July 2018
Inventories of crude oil rose last week due to a jump in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread is likely to remain fairly narrow until stock levels at Cushing improve. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
5th July 2018
Oil prices were volatile in June, falling in the first half of the month on fears of a trade war and slowing economic growth in China. But a drop in US inventories, a smaller-than-expected increase in OPEC’s output and the threat of tougher sanctions on …
4th July 2018
Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next twenty years. At the same time, plentiful oil reserves …
28th June 2018
Inventories of crude oil slumped last week due to a jump in exports and higher demand from refineries. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread this week may put a dampener on exports, but outages in Canada could also curb imports. As such, net imports may …
27th June 2018
We expect OPEC and Russia to increase production by about 1m barrels per day over the rest of the year, which should ensure ample supply and help to pull prices down. … OPEC agrees to boost …
25th June 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a jump in exports and higher demand from refineries. However, if China acts on its threat to reduce its purchases of US crude, it will be difficult to maintain exports at this level which could lead to higher …
20th June 2018
The retaliatory tariffs which China has threatened to impose on oil imports from the US would not in themselves change the balance of supply and demand in global oil markets. But if China chooses to source more oil from Iran, or to scale back its …
18th June 2018
We think that differing outlooks for demand will cause the prices of energy commodities to diverge over the rest of this year, despite their recent close correlation. … Oil and coal prices to fall, but gas to remain …
14th June 2018
Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to lower net imports and higher demand from refineries. However, US oil production posted another jump. Output is growing at a much faster rate than demand from refineries, which should eventually lead to lower …
13th June 2018