Filtered by Subscriptions: Energy Use setting Energy
Oil prices saw their strongest quarterly gain in almost ten years in Q1 2019. However, we expect that this recent upturn will begin to subside and that the fundamentals of elevated US supply and subdued global demand should send prices lower by end-2019. …
2nd April 2019
We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide gradually in the coming years, and as a result, the net impact …
29th March 2019
The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be clear, our forecast of lower oil prices by end-2019 is …
28th March 2019
US crude stocks rose this week as the refinery rate ticked down and net imports picked up. We don’t think that this trend will continue as we believe that OPEC exports to the US will continue to fall. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
27th March 2019
The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing considerably less than its quota. But our forecast of …
22nd March 2019
US stocks slumped again. The drivers were an increase in the refinery rate and a huge jump in exports. What’s more, this occurred despite production rising. We expect that as refineries come out of maintenance and as OPEC exports drop, crude stocks will …
20th March 2019
The latest data show that OPEC has more than met its production quota, albeit mostly down to Saudi Arabia. However, with non-OPEC oil supply increasing and demand growth waning, we still think that the price of Brent oil will drop to $50 per barrel by …
14th March 2019
US crude stocks fell sharply and we expect them to continue to fall in the coming weeks as refineries come out of maintenance. However, higher refinery activity should also start to stabilise gasoline stocks. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
13th March 2019
There have been some dramatic moves in price spreads between different grades of crude oil in the last year. For the most part, spreads have reflected differences in the underlying physical demand and supply of a particular crude. In this Energy Watch , …
Theoretically, there should be a relationship between the price of oil, the number of oil rigs actively drilling and oil production. However, the relationship appears to have broken down in the past. In this Energy Watch , we investigate the possible …
7th March 2019
US crude stocks jumped, largely owing to an increase in net imports. In contrast, product stocks fell, which is partly a seasonal phenomenon but does suggest that US consumer demand is holding up well. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
6th March 2019
The price of oil continued to climb in February as the US and China inched towards a trade deal, and Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut output further. However, we still think that prices will fall by end-2019 owing to soft demand arising from a …
The plunge in the spot LNG price is in large part the result of a mild northern hemisphere winter. As such, prices may rebound if the weather normalises, but rapid growth in supply will prevent sizeable gains. … LNG price slump is not all about the …
28th February 2019
US crude inventories recorded a significant draw, which was impressive considering US production continued to tick up and is now at a record-high. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
27th February 2019
The US has now cemented its position as the largest oil producer in the world. Unsurprisingly, inventories rose, despite record-high exports, denting hopes of a further oil price rally. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
21st February 2019
There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not political analysts. But we think that we can make several …
The recent surge in the oil price reflects concerns about a supply shortfall, on the back of sharply lower production in some key OPEC producers. That said, there are already signs that growth in demand will be weaker this year, which will remove much of …
20th February 2019
Slower economic growth in the two largest oil consumers will weigh on oil demand this year and is a key reason why we expect prices to fall, despite lower supply. Admittedly, China is likely to continue buying for its strategic reserve, but this will not …
19th February 2019
US crude stocks recorded a hefty build, primarily reflecting a decline in refinery inputs as net imports plunged and production remained unchanged. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
13th February 2019
January production data showed that OPEC is more than complying with the output cuts announced in late 2018, which probably explains the relative resilience of oil prices in recent weeks. However, we think that weaker global oil demand will lead to excess …
12th February 2019
US crude stocks nudged up, despite a fall in net imports and a rise in refinery activity. Although US product demand remains robust, we expect it to ease back later in 2019 as the economy starts to slow. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
6th February 2019
The price of oil rose strongly in January and is likely to remain supported in the coming months by the OPEC+ output cuts and the risk of severe disruption to Venezuela’s production. However, we think prices will ease back later in the year on the back of …
4th February 2019
Weaker demand, the ongoing transition away from coal and rising supply from Russia will lead to lower European coal prices in 2019. We forecast that the price of Rotterdam coal will fall from $80 per tonne currently to $70 by end-year. … European coal …
31st January 2019
US crude stocks edged up a touch, as inputs to refineries plunged. Product demand is holding up well for now, but we expect it to fall later in the year as the US economy slows. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
30th January 2019
Our forecast of slower global growth in 2019-20 is a key factor underpinning our bearish outlook for the prices of oil and coal. What’s more, we expect further declines in global equity markets and a resilient US dollar this year, suggesting that …
29th January 2019
The decision by the US to impose sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, will lead to a large loss of export earnings in the next few months. If Maduro can cling on to power during this time (perhaps by securing loans from China and …
The received wisdom in the oil market is that the latest political turmoil in Venezuela is positive for oil prices as it could lead to further disruptions to the country’s oil supply. But a change of regime could actually prompt a relatively rapid rebound …
25th January 2019
US crude stocks jumped, after falling for the past two weeks, despite no change in production. That said, the large jump in production may not be repeated this year given low prevailing prices. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
24th January 2019
Following the decision by OPEC and its allies to reduce output for six months from January, the latest data showed OPEC’s commitment to remove much of the apparent excess supply in the oil market. But given that record growth in US production shows no …
17th January 2019
US crude stocks fell for the second consecutive week, despite an increase in production and a lower input to refineries. And the further build in gasoline and distillate stocks suggest softening demand. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
16th January 2019
Rising global supply, softer demand and lower prices of other forms of energy will weigh on the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2019. … LNG prices to follow coal and oil …
11th January 2019
Changes to our wider global macroeconomic and market forecasts have prompted us to re-assess the outlook for oil prices. We now expect slower growth in global demand and rising US production to return the oil market to a comfortable surplus by end-2019, …
10th January 2019
US crude stocks fell in the first week of 2019 and domestic production was unchanged. The hefty gains in refined product stocks, despite the dip in the refinery utilisation rate, make it clear that growth in demand is slowing. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
9th January 2019
US crude stocks rose at the end of December as domestic production remained stable and crude inputs to refineries grew. While the slight increase in crude stocks is not too concerning, the surge in refined product stocks implies waning demand. … US Weekly …
4th January 2019
Oil prices continued to fall last month and we expect them to remain subdued given that, for now at least, the market is more than comfortably supplied. That said, the production cut announced by OPEC and its allies should take some of the current excess …
3rd January 2019
A small drop in US stocks coupled with signs of solid growth in products demand suggest that some of the market’s fears about oversupply may be overdone. We continue to expect that the output cuts pledged by OPEC+ will bring the market closer to balance …
19th December 2018
Slower economic growth in China, increasing production and the continuing shift towards natural gas and renewable energy for power generation will weigh on the price of coal in 2019. … Coal prices to run out of …
18th December 2018
US crude oil stocks edged lower in early December as domestic output fell back and inputs to refineries remained high. Stocks may fall further in the coming weeks, if refinery activity remains strong. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
12th December 2018
Amid growing concerns over a glut in the market, OPEC and its allies pledged to cut output. We estimate that these cuts will remove much of the apparent excess supply in the market, but think that the relief in oil prices will be short-lived as slower …
We expect a combination of slower global GDP growth and persistent rises in US shale output to lead to lower oil prices in 2019. Our end-2019 forecast for Brent is now $55 per barrel ($60 previously). … Slower growth in demand to weigh on oil …
11th December 2018
With the upcoming change to regulations on marine fuel sulphur content due to come into effect on January 2020, this Energy Watch will examine the implications for the oil market. While we don’t expect the IMO 2020 to have a large impact on the price of …
Oil prices slumped in November as rising production in the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia prompted fears of oversupply. The market is now hoping that OPEC and its allies will agree to cut output, which should at least put a floor under prices. … Surging …
6th December 2018
US crude oil stocks fell sharply at end-November for the most part owing to a jump in US exports, which could be sustained given that crude prices in the US are still markedly lower than elsewhere. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
We expect OPEC and its allies to agree to cut oil output at this week’s OPEC meeting. This should at least put a floor under prices and may, depending on the size of the cut, boost prices. But with global economic growth set to slow and US oil output …
5th December 2018
US crude oil stocks continued to climb in the latest data, adding to signs of oversupply in the market and putting additional pressure on OPEC to move to curb output at its meeting in early December. We expect OPEC output to start to fall in the coming …
28th November 2018
The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the need to placate President Trump with a desire to put a …
27th November 2018
We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. … A lot of hot air in the US natural gas …
26th November 2018
Oil prices fell by 7-8% last Friday on market fears of oversupply, but we suspect that producers will start to withhold exports in the coming months, putting a floor under prices. … Oil price falls too far, too …
Persistently high US oil production meant that crude stocks built again, despite a revival in refinery activity. What’s more, rising output of petroleum products means that we could start to see product stocks start to increase in the coming weeks. All …
21st November 2018
A combination of higher domestic production, low refinery runs and a fall in exports contributed to the eighth consecutive weekly build in US crude stocks. If nothing else, the latest data bolster the case for OPEC and its allies to decide to cut …
15th November 2018