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The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) public finance forecasts in a no deal scenario published in its Fiscal Risks Report this week really do look pretty dreadful. We suspect they overdo the gloom a bit. But either way, whether it is Boris Johnson …
19th July 2019
Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. ( See here .) Some of that is just payback from activity being brought forward from Q2 into Q1 ahead of the …
12th July 2019
Investors now think the next move in interest rates will be down. The black line in Chart 1 shows the market-implied probability of the MPC cutting rates by the meeting on 30 th January has jumped from 27% to 54%. As a result, the 10-year gilt yield fell …
5th July 2019
The chances of the economy escaping a quarterly contraction in Q2 seem to be receding in light of the latest surveys and official data. Indeed, we can take less comfort from Q1’s GDP figures now that we have the second estimate. Stockbuilding is now …
28th June 2019