Prospect of higher interest rates drifting further away

Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. Some of that is just payback from activity being brought forward from Q2 into Q1 ahead of the original Brexit deadline of 29th March. But there’s a growing risk that the underlying trend is slowing too.

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